🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kryvbas KR vs Kolos Kovalivka encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Kolos Kovalivka make the trip to Stadion Hirnyk to face Kryvbas KR in Premier League, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 May 2025 at 12:35 UTC.

Form

Kryvbas KR (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Kryvbas KR's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Hirnyk this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Kolos Kovalivka's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Premier League this season, Kolos Kovalivka have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kryvbas KR lead 3W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Kryvbas KR goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

Kolos Kovalivka goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 47% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 42% versus Kolos Kovalivka 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kryvbas KR 44% | Kolos Kovalivka 19%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.40 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.296 / defence 1.020 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 1.327 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.168 / away 1.023. Kryvbas KR carry an above-average attack strength of 1.296 — their λ of 1.40 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Kolos Kovalivka have an above-average attack strength of 1.327 — the away xG of 1.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Kryvbas KR games / 57 Kolos Kovalivka games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 36% | Draw 28% | Kolos Kovalivka 36%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Kolos Kovalivka 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Kryvbas KR 40% | Kolos Kovalivka 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights