FC Kharkiv 1-4 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ruh Lviv at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Livyi Bereh plays host to FC Kharkiv versus Ruh Lviv in Premier League (matchday 21). Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 11:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
FC Kharkiv have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Kharkiv at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — FC Kharkiv are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Ruh Lviv (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Ruh Lviv away from home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On a straight form reading, Ruh Lviv are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for FC Kharkiv, 1 for Ruh Lviv and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended FC Kharkiv 1–1 Ruh Lviv — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
FC Kharkiv half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Ruh Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 40% versus Ruh Lviv 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 42% | Ruh Lviv 40%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC Kharkiv surrender their half-time lead 44% of the time, while Ruh Lviv have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 0.94 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 1.024 / defence 1.316 | Ruh Lviv attack 1.080 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.098 / away 1.132. FC Kharkiv's defence rating of 1.316 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Ruh Lviv's projected output up. Data: built from FC Kharkiv's last 50 games and Ruh Lviv's last 50.
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 21% | Draw 27% | Ruh Lviv 52%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 4.73 | Draw 3.76 | Ruh Lviv 1.91. Ruh Lviv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ruh Lviv are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: FC Kharkiv 70% (last 10 home games) | Ruh Lviv 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 21 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 21% | Draw 27% | Ruh Lviv 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG FC Kharkiv 0.94 / Ruh Lviv 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 1.024 / def 1.316 | Ruh Lviv attack 1.080 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.098 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Ruh Lviv xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv FAQs
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv?
FC Kharkiv 1 - 4 Ruh Lviv.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 21) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 21% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 52% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Ruh Lviv will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Kharkiv's attack rating (1.02) and Ruh Lviv's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ruh Lviv's attack (1.08x) against FC Kharkiv's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from FC Kharkiv's last 50 games and Ruh Lviv's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-2 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
21%
4.73
27%
3.76
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.55
1.61
Ruh Lviv xG
4.73
21%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
4%
23.65
20%
4.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 12.6 | 10.1 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 1.61 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Kharkiv's recent record stands at 10W 18D 22L from 50 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Ruh Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 15W 20D 15L across 50 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-D-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for FC Kharkiv against 1.30 for Ruh Lviv. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Kharkiv have managed 7W 7D 10L from their last 24 home games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ruh Lviv's away record stands at 9W 6D 9L across their last 24 away games, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
FC Kharkiv are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 1.18 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
FC Kharkiv (Home) vs Ruh Lviv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Kharkiv
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv Form FAQs
What form are FC Kharkiv and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 10W 18D 22L in their last 50 games (0.96 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 15W 20D 15L in their last 50 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Ruh Lviv's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.17 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.38 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between FC Kharkiv and Ruh Lviv, the earliest from July 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 9 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
FC Kharkiv have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ruh Lviv won FC Kharkiv 1-4 Ruh Lviv on 16 Mar 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Kharkiv have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ruh Lviv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
FC Kharkiv
3
Draws
2
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Ruh Lviv?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Kharkiv have won 3, Ruh Lviv have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 March 2026: Ruh Lviv 0-3 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Ruh Lviv?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 46%, Ruh Lviv 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (FC Kharkiv) and 46% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv have failed to score in 42% of games; Ruh Lviv in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Ruh Lviv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Kharkiv and Ruh Lviv matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 46% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Kharkiv and Ruh Lviv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 46% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Kharkiv and Ruh Lviv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 75% of Ruh Lviv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ruh Lviv run riot with a 1-4 hammering of FC Kharkiv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat FC Kharkiv 1-4 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 0.94 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.61 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Ruh Lviv outscored their 1.61 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 1.02 / defence 1.32 against Ruh Lviv attack 1.08 / defence 0.83, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 21% | Draw 27% | Ruh Lviv 52%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 42%, Ruh Lviv 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Kharkiv 0.96 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ruh Lviv win broke the near-deadlock. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.