Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 Polessya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Polessya at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Obolon'-Brovar vs Polessya encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Polessya make the trip to Obolon Arena to face Obolon'-Brovar in Premier League, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 March 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Obolon'-Brovar (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Obolon'-Brovar have posted 1W 4D 4L at Obolon Arena — 0.78 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Polessya have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Polessya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Polessya's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Polessya are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Obolon'-Brovar lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2023, ended 0–2 with Polessya winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Obolon'-Brovar — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 63% of games.
Polessya — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Obolon'-Brovar 26% versus Polessya 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Obolon'-Brovar 26% | Polessya 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 0.71 xG and Polessya 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.713 / defence 1.092 | Polessya attack 0.895 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.099 / away 1.162. Obolon'-Brovar's attack strength of 0.713 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 Obolon'-Brovar games / 20 Polessya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 22% | Draw 33% | Polessya 45%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 4.55 | Draw 3.03 | Polessya 2.22. Polessya hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Obolon'-Brovar's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Polessya are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Polessya if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.84 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Obolon'-Brovar 33% | Polessya 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Obolon'-Brovar vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 22% | Draw 33% | Polessya 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 35% | xG Obolon'-Brovar 0.71 / Polessya 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.713 / def 1.092 | Polessya attack 0.895 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.099 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Polessya (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Polessya xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Obolon'-Brovar vs Polessya kick off?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Polessya kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Polessya?
Obolon'-Brovar 1 - 0 Polessya.
Where is Obolon'-Brovar vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Obolon'-Brovar vs Polessya part of?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Polessya is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Obolon'-Brovar vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives Obolon'-Brovar a 22% chance of winning, Polessya a 45% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Obolon'-Brovar and Polessya will score (BTTS).
Will Obolon'-Brovar vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Polessya?
Record (1 meetings): Obolon'-Brovar 0W | Draws 0 | Polessya 1W.
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Polessya in?
Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Polessya (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Obolon'-Brovar's attack rating (0.71) and Polessya's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Polessya's attack (0.90x) against Obolon'-Brovar's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 19/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.3%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
22%
4.55
33%
3.02
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Total xG
1.84
1.14
Polessya xG
4.55
22%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
7%
14.15
22%
4.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 18.0 | 10.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.7 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Obolon'-Brovar vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Obolon'-Brovar and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 1.14 for Polessya, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Obolon'-Brovar vs Polessya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, Obolon'-Brovar have picked up 0.79 PPG on a 3W 6D 10L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Obolon'-Brovar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Polessya's form line: 8W 6D 5L from 19 games, 1.58 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-L. The sample for Polessya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Polessya are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Obolon'-Brovar.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Obolon'-Brovar have posted 0.78 PPG from 9 outings (1W 4D 4L).
On the road, Polessya have gone 4W 3D 2L from 9 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Polessya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Obolon'-Brovar are averaging 0.58 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 1.26 scored and 0.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Obolon'-Brovar have seen both teams score in 26% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
Polessya
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Polessya in coming into this match?
Obolon'-Brovar have gone 3W 6D 10L in their last 19 games (0.79 PPG), while Polessya have gone 8W 6D 5L in their last 19 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Obolon'-Brovar at home or Polessya away?
Polessya's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Obolon'-Brovar at home: 0.78 PPG; Polessya away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Obolon'-Brovar or Polessya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Obolon'-Brovar have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Polessya in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Polessya have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Polessya won 4-0 on 25 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Polessya — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Obolon'-Brovar
1
Draws
4
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Polessya?
From 6 meetings on record, Obolon'-Brovar have won 1, Polessya have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Obolon'-Brovar and Polessya last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Polessya 3-1 Obolon'-Brovar.
Who has won more matches between Obolon'-Brovar and Polessya?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Polessya see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Obolon'-Brovar) and 33% (Polessya) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Obolon'-Brovar and 44% for Polessya.
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Polessya in 56%; Obolon'-Brovar have failed to score in 56% of games; Polessya in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Obolon'-Brovar home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Obolon'-Brovar play Polessya?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 33% of Polessya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Obolon'-Brovar vs Polessya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent games and 44% of Polessya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Obolon'-Brovar defy the odds to beat Polessya 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Obolon'-Brovar beat Polessya 1-0 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 0.71 xG and Polessya 1.14 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Polessya landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.71 / defence 1.09 against Polessya attack 0.90 / defence 0.90, drawn from 19/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 22% | Draw 33% | Polessya 45%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Obolon'-Brovar win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 26%, Polessya 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Polessya's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Obolon'-Brovar winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Polessya (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.