Dnipro-1 0-1 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ruh Lviv at 37%, yet in-form Dnipro-1 provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dnipro-1 host Ruh Lviv at Dnipro Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 8 March 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Dnipro-1 have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dnipro-1's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Dnipro Arena this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ruh Lviv stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ruh Lviv away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Dnipro-1 carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Dnipro-1 register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ruh Lviv in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Dnipro-1 hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Ruh Lviv, with 0 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2023, ended 2–0 with Dnipro-1 winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Dnipro-1 and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Dnipro-1 in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Ruh Lviv in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dnipro-1 51% versus Ruh Lviv 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dnipro-1 55% | Ruh Lviv 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dnipro-1 1.19 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dnipro-1 attack 1.155 / defence 1.000 | Ruh Lviv attack 1.090 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.105 / away 1.184. Data: 49 Dnipro-1 games / 49 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dnipro-1 32% | Draw 31% | Ruh Lviv 37%. Fair-value odds: Dnipro-1 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Ruh Lviv 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ruh Lviv at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dnipro-1 (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dnipro-1 60% | Ruh Lviv 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Dnipro Arena • Kick-off: Friday 8 Mar 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dnipro-1 32% | Draw 31% | Ruh Lviv 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Dnipro-1 1.19 / Ruh Lviv 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Dnipro-1 attack 1.155 / def 1.000 | Ruh Lviv attack 1.090 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.105 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Dnipro-1 xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Ruh Lviv xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 11:00 on Friday 8 March 2024 at Dnipro Arena.
What was the final score in Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv?
Dnipro-1 0 - 1 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Dnipro Arena.
What competition is Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Dnipro-1 a 32% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Dnipro-1 and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Ruh Lviv?
Record (4 meetings): Dnipro-1 4W | Draws 0 | Ruh Lviv 0W.
What form are Dnipro-1 and Ruh Lviv in?
Dnipro-1 (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Dnipro-1's attack at 1.16x the league average against Ruh Lviv's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Dnipro-1's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
32%
3.11
31%
3.24
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Dnipro-1 xG
Total xG
2.48
1.29
Ruh Lviv xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
9%
11.31
11%
8.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.8 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Dnipro-1 and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Dnipro-1 and 1.29 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dnipro-1's recent record stands at 32W 9D 8L from 49 games, a 2.14 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 14W 20D 15L across 49 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-D-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dnipro-1 by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ruh Lviv heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dnipro-1 have managed 15W 5D 4L from 24 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ruh Lviv's away record stands at 8W 6D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dnipro-1 are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 1.18 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dnipro-1
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dnipro-1 and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Dnipro-1 have gone 32W 9D 8L in their last 49 games (2.14 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 14W 20D 15L in their last 49 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dnipro-1 at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Dnipro-1's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dnipro-1 at home: 2.08 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Dnipro-1 or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dnipro-1 and Ruh Lviv runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dnipro-1's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Dnipro-1
0
Draws
1
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Ruh Lviv?
From 5 meetings on record, Dnipro-1 have won 4, Ruh Lviv have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dnipro-1 and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2024, when Dnipro-1 0-1 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Dnipro-1 and Ruh Lviv?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dnipro-1 58%, Ruh Lviv 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Dnipro-1) and 46% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Ruh Lviv in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dnipro-1 home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dnipro-1 play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Dnipro-1's recent matches and 46% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dnipro-1 vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Dnipro-1's recent games and 46% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dnipro-1 and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Dnipro-1 have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ruh Lviv edge out Dnipro-1 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat Dnipro-1 0-1 at Dnipro Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dnipro-1 1.19 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.29 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dnipro-1 fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dnipro-1 attack 1.16 / defence 1.00 against Ruh Lviv attack 1.09 / defence 0.93, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dnipro-1 32% | Draw 31% | Ruh Lviv 37%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dnipro-1 55%, Ruh Lviv 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dnipro-1's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Ruh Lviv winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.