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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Oleksandria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Oleksandria finished level at 1-1 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.59 xG and Oleksandria 0.91 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.97 / defence 0.90 against Oleksandria attack 0.82 / defence 1.29, drawn from 24/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 53% | Draw 25% | Oleksandria 22%, with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 52%, Oleksandria 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (25 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Oleksandria's trading profile (25 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.00 PPG, Oleksandria 0.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights