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LNZ Cherkasy cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

LNZ Cherkasy beat Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0-2 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.91 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.79 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.90 / defence 1.34 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.05 / defence 0.83, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 19% | Draw 23% | LNZ Cherkasy 58%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 59%, LNZ Cherkasy 18%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 18% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, LNZ Cherkasy arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights