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Prediction vindicated as Epitsentr Dunayivtsi edge out Kudrivka 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi beat Kudrivka 1-0 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.67 xG and Kudrivka 1.07 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Kudrivka landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.18 / defence 1.10 against Kudrivka attack 0.80 / defence 1.17, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 51% | Draw 24% | Kudrivka 24%, with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 59%, Kudrivka 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Kudrivka's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.95 PPG, Kudrivka 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win broke the near-deadlock. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Kudrivka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights