🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Shakhtar Donetsk run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Chornomorets.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shakhtar Donetsk beat Chornomorets 0-3 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 0.78 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.61 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk outscored their 1.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.82 / defence 1.13 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.39 / defence 0.77, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 18% | Draw 25% | Shakhtar Donetsk 57%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 46%, Shakhtar Donetsk 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chornomorets's trading profile (56 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (56 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights