🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Chornomorets face Shakhtar Donetsk.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Chornomorets host Shakhtar Donetsk at Stadion Chornomorets in Premier League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 May 2025 at 11:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Chornomorets — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Chornomorets at Stadion Chornomorets this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Shakhtar Donetsk stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Shakhtar Donetsk's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shakhtar Donetsk — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

Shakhtar Donetsk have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters against Chornomorets's 0 victories.

The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2024, ended 1–2 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Shakhtar Donetsk have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Profile

Chornomorets in-play tendencies (56 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Shakhtar Donetsk in-play tendencies (56 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 45% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 46% | Shakhtar Donetsk 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 0.78 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.824 / defence 1.133 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.389 / defence 0.771. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.023. Shakhtar Donetsk's defence strength of 0.771 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shakhtar Donetsk have an above-average attack strength of 1.389 — the away xG of 1.61 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Chornomorets games / 56 Shakhtar Donetsk games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Chornomorets 18% | Draw 25% | Shakhtar Donetsk 57%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 5.56 | Draw 4.00 | Shakhtar Donetsk 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Shakhtar Donetsk are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 40% | Shakhtar Donetsk 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights