Chornomorets 3-0 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees FC Kharkiv travel to Stadion Chornomorets to take on Chornomorets. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 May 2024, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chornomorets stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Stadion Chornomorets this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
FC Kharkiv — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, FC Kharkiv have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Chornomorets at 0.60 PPG versus FC Kharkiv's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Chornomorets, 2 for FC Kharkiv and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with FC Kharkiv winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Chornomorets trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
FC Kharkiv trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 51% versus FC Kharkiv 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 53% | FC Kharkiv 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.69 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 1.000 / defence 1.300 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.835 / defence 1.381. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.180. FC Kharkiv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.381 — this is suppressing Chornomorets's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Chornomorets games / 57 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 47% | Draw 24% | FC Kharkiv 29%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | FC Kharkiv 3.45. Chornomorets hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chornomorets at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chornomorets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 50% | FC Kharkiv 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 47% | Draw 24% | FC Kharkiv 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Chornomorets 1.69 / FC Kharkiv 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 1.000 / def 1.300 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.835 / def 1.381 | league avg home 1.219 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.28
FC Kharkiv xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv?
Chornomorets 3 - 0 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 47% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv?
Record (5 meetings): Chornomorets 1W | Draws 2 | FC Kharkiv 2W.
What form are Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chornomorets's attack at 1.00x the league average against FC Kharkiv's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
47%
2.13
24%
4.18
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.96
1.28
FC Kharkiv xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
5%
18.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.1 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.28 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chornomorets's recent record stands at 18W 10D 29L from 57 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Kharkiv, meanwhile, have gone 11W 21D 25L across 57 games — 0.95 PPG, with D-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chornomorets on 1.12 PPG, FC Kharkiv on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Chornomorets have managed 8W 5D 15L from 28 games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Kharkiv's away record stands at 3W 11D 14L across 28 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Chornomorets are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.89 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 18W 10D 29L in their last 57 games (1.12 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 11W 21D 25L in their last 57 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Chornomorets's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.04 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2024, when Chornomorets won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chornomorets's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Chornomorets
2
Draws
2
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv?
From 6 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 2, FC Kharkiv have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Chornomorets 3-0 FC Kharkiv.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 43%, FC Kharkiv 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Chornomorets) and 36% (FC Kharkiv).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets have failed to score in 36% of games; FC Kharkiv in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 39% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Chornomorets's recent games and 36% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Chornomorets run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Kharkiv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chornomorets beat FC Kharkiv 3-0 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.69 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.28 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Chornomorets beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Kharkiv landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 1.00 / defence 1.30 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.83 / defence 1.38, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 47% | Draw 24% | FC Kharkiv 29%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 53%, FC Kharkiv 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chornomorets 1.12 PPG, FC Kharkiv 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chornomorets win broke the near-deadlock. Chornomorets (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.