Oleksandria 1-0 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
CSC Nika plays host to Oleksandria versus Dnipro-1 in Premier League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Oleksandria have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria's home record at CSC Nika: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Dnipro-1's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dnipro-1's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Oleksandria, 1.40 for Dnipro-1 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Oleksandria lead 0W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with Dnipro-1 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Oleksandria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Dnipro-1 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 53% versus Dnipro-1 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 49% | Dnipro-1 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 0.91 xG and Dnipro-1 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 0.901 / defence 1.137 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.013 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.193. Data: 57 Oleksandria games / 57 Dnipro-1 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 25% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 48%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Dnipro-1 2.08. Dnipro-1 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dnipro-1 are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Oleksandria 40% | Dnipro-1 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Sunday 12 May 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 25% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Oleksandria 0.91 / Dnipro-1 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 0.901 / def 1.137 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.013 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Dnipro-1 xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 12 May 2024 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1?
Oleksandria 1 - 0 Dnipro-1.
Where is Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1 is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 25% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Oleksandria and Dnipro-1 will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Dnipro-1?
Record (4 meetings): Oleksandria 0W | Draws 2 | Dnipro-1 2W.
What form are Oleksandria and Dnipro-1 in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Dnipro-1 (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Oleksandria's attack at 0.90x the league average against Dnipro-1's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dnipro-1's attack (1.01x) against Oleksandria's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
25%
4.07
28%
3.60
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.28
1.37
Dnipro-1 xG
4.07
25%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
6%
16.06
19%
5.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 14.1 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.37 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Oleksandria's recent record stands at 16W 23D 18L from 57 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dnipro-1, meanwhile, have gone 34W 13D 10L across 57 games — 2.02 PPG, with D-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dnipro-1 by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Oleksandria heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Oleksandria have managed 9W 10D 9L from 28 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dnipro-1's away record stands at 17W 7D 4L across 28 trips, a 2.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Oleksandria are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 1.72 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Dnipro-1 in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 16W 23D 18L in their last 57 games (1.25 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 34W 13D 10L in their last 57 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Dnipro-1's away record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.32 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 2.07 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oleksandria have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dnipro-1 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Oleksandria
2
Draws
2
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Dnipro-1?
From 5 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 1, Dnipro-1 have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2024, when Oleksandria 1-0 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Dnipro-1?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 50%, Dnipro-1 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Oleksandria) and 46% (Dnipro-1).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Dnipro-1 in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Dnipro-1?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 50% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Dnipro-1 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Oleksandria's recent games and 46% of Dnipro-1's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Dnipro-1 tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Dnipro-1 in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Oleksandria defy the odds to beat Dnipro-1 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Dnipro-1 1-0 at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 0.91 xG and Dnipro-1 1.37 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dnipro-1 landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.90 / defence 1.14 against Dnipro-1 attack 1.01 / defence 0.82, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 25% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 48%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Oleksandria win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 49%, Dnipro-1 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Oleksandria winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Oleksandria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.