Ruh Lviv 2-0 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ruh Lviv at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 29 as Ruh Lviv welcome Chornomorets to Arena Lviv. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 May 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Ruh Lviv have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ruh Lviv have posted 2W 7D 1L at Arena Lviv — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Arena Lviv this season.
Chornomorets — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Chornomorets have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Ruh Lviv are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Ruh Lviv, 1 for Chornomorets and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 3–2 with Ruh Lviv winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ruh Lviv in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Chornomorets in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 57% versus Chornomorets 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 41% | Chornomorets 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.57 xG and Chornomorets 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 1.070 / defence 0.889 | Chornomorets attack 0.895 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.190. Data: 58 Ruh Lviv games / 58 Chornomorets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 52% | Draw 25% | Chornomorets 23%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Chornomorets 4.35. Ruh Lviv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ruh Lviv at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 5.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ruh Lviv 60% | Chornomorets 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 52% | Draw 25% | Chornomorets 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.57 / Chornomorets 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 1.070 / def 0.889 | Chornomorets attack 0.895 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Chornomorets xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets?
Ruh Lviv 2 - 0 Chornomorets.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 52% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets?
Record (4 meetings): Ruh Lviv 2W | Draws 1 | Chornomorets 1W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. Chornomorets (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ruh Lviv's attack rating (1.07) and Chornomorets's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chornomorets's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
52%
1.92
25%
3.95
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.52
0.95
Chornomorets xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
20%
4.96
5%
21.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.0 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 0.95 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ruh Lviv come into this having played 58 games, going 18W 24D 16L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-D.
On the other side, Chornomorets sit at 1.16 PPG from 58 outings (19W 10D 29L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ruh Lviv on 1.34 PPG, Chornomorets on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Ruh Lviv's home form reads 8W 15D 5L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Chornomorets have taken 1.21 points per game from 28 outings (10W 4D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Ruh Lviv are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 1.26 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Current Season
Chornomorets
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 18W 24D 16L in their last 58 games (1.34 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 19W 10D 29L in their last 58 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Chornomorets away?
Ruh Lviv's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.39 PPG; Chornomorets away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting Chornomorets specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Ruh Lviv
2
Draws
1
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets?
From 7 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 4, Chornomorets have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Chornomorets 1-2 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 64%, Chornomorets 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Ruh Lviv) and 57% (Chornomorets).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Chornomorets?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Ruh Lviv's games and 61% of Chornomorets's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 57% of Chornomorets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Chornomorets tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ruh Lviv cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Chornomorets.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat Chornomorets 2-0 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.57 xG and Chornomorets 0.95 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Chornomorets landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 1.07 / defence 0.89 against Chornomorets attack 0.90 / defence 1.19, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 52% | Draw 25% | Chornomorets 23%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 41%, Chornomorets 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Chornomorets's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 1.34 PPG, Chornomorets 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ruh Lviv win broke the near-deadlock. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Chornomorets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.