Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Uthai Thani at 57% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 6 as Uthai Thani welcome Sukhothai FC to Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 October 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Uthai Thani have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Uthai Thani haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Uthai Thani's home record at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Uthai Thani are significantly better at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Sukhothai FC — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sukhothai FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Sukhothai FC have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Uthai Thani) versus 0.70 (Sukhothai FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Uthai Thani: 3 wins from 6 previous clashes against 0 for Sukhothai FC, with 3 draws across those contests.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Uthai Thani a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Uthai Thani in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sukhothai FC in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Uthai Thani 60% versus Sukhothai FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 47% | Sukhothai FC 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.75 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 1.013 / defence 0.975 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.837 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.020. Data: 30 Uthai Thani games / 30 Sukhothai FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 57% | Draw 27% | Sukhothai FC 16%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | Sukhothai FC 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Uthai Thani (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Uthai Thani at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 50% | Sukhothai FC 20% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 57% | Draw 27% | Sukhothai FC 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG Uthai Thani 1.75 / Sukhothai FC 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 1.013 / def 0.975 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.837 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.020 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Sukhothai FC xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 57% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC?
Record (6 meetings): Uthai Thani 3W | Draws 3 | Sukhothai FC 0W.
What form are Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Uthai Thani (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Uthai Thani's attack at 1.01x the league average against Sukhothai FC's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sukhothai FC's attack versus Uthai Thani's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
57%
1.75
27%
3.71
16%
6.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.58
0.83
Sukhothai FC xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
6.35
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
17%
5.74
Win to Nil
25%
4.01
3%
36.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.0 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 0.83 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Uthai Thani come into this having played 30 games, going 7W 10D 13L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. Uthai Thani haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 0.93 PPG from 30 outings (6W 10D 14L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. Sukhothai FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Uthai Thani on 1.03 PPG, Sukhothai FC on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Uthai Thani's home form reads 5W 5D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 0.27 points per game from 15 outings (0W 4D 11L). That's a step down from their 0.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sukhothai FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Uthai Thani come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 0.77 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Pre-Season
Sukhothai FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 games (1.03 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 6W 10D 14L in their last 30 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Uthai Thani's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.33 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jan 2025, when Uthai Thani won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Uthai Thani's record when hosting Sukhothai FC specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Uthai Thani
3
Draws
0
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 3, Sukhothai FC have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Sukhothai FC 1-1 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 60%, Sukhothai FC 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Uthai Thani) and 27% (Sukhothai FC).
On the defensive side: Uthai Thani have failed to score in 27% of games; Sukhothai FC in 73%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Sukhothai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Uthai Thani's recent matches and 27% of Sukhothai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Uthai Thani's recent games and 27% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.