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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Pattani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

700th Anniversary Stadium plays host to Lamphun Warrior versus Pattani in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 25 October 2026 at 11:30 UTC.

Form

Lamphun Warrior (all games): 1W 7D 2L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lamphun Warrior haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Lamphun Warrior have gone 2W 7D 1L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.69 xG and Pattani 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.928 / defence 0.983 | Pattani attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.019. Data: 30 Lamphun Warrior games / 0 Pattani games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 55% | Draw 28% | Pattani 17%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | Pattani 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Lamphun Warrior (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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