Trat FC 0-1 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trat FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trat FC vs Muangthong United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Trat FC and Muangthong United meet at Trat Provincial Central Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Monday 6 November 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Trat FC (all games): 3W 3D 3L across 9 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.33 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.11 goals per game and conceding 1.78 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Trat FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Trat Provincial Central Stadium, Trat FC have gone 3W 2D 0L this season (5 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.33 — Trat FC are significantly better at Trat Provincial Central Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Muangthong United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Muangthong United have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.33 PPG for Trat FC against 1.30 for Muangthong United. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Trat FC half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Muangthong United half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trat FC 44% versus Muangthong United 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Trat FC 67% | Muangthong United 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trat FC 1.84 xG and Muangthong United 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trat FC attack 0.964 / defence 1.034 | Muangthong United attack 1.055 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.250. Data: 9 Trat FC games / 39 Muangthong United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trat FC 48% | Draw 24% | Muangthong United 28%. Fair-value odds: Trat FC 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Muangthong United 3.57. Trat FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trat FC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trat FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Trat FC 60% | Muangthong United 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trat FC vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Trat Provincial Central Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 6 Nov 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trat FC 48% | Draw 24% | Muangthong United 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Trat FC 1.84 / Muangthong United 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Trat FC attack 0.964 / def 1.034 | Muangthong United attack 1.055 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Trat FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Trat FC xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Muangthong United xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trat FC vs Muangthong United kick off?
Trat FC vs Muangthong United kicked off at 11:30 on Monday 6 November 2023 at Trat Provincial Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Trat FC vs Muangthong United?
Trat FC 0 - 1 Muangthong United.
Where is Trat FC vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at Trat Provincial Central Stadium.
What competition is Trat FC vs Muangthong United part of?
Trat FC vs Muangthong United is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Trat FC vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives Trat FC a 48% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Trat FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trat FC vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Trat FC and Muangthong United will score (BTTS).
Will Trat FC vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trat FC and Muangthong United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Trat FC and Muangthong United in?
Trat FC (all comps): 3W-3D-3L in 9 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.78 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Muangthong United (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Trat FC's attack rating (0.96) and Muangthong United's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Muangthong United's attack (1.05x) against Trat FC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 9/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trat FC Win
48%
2.09
24%
4.10
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Trat FC xG
Total xG
3.20
1.36
Muangthong United xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
16%
6.28
Win to Nil
12%
8.19
4%
22.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.2 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trat FC vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Trat FC and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Trat FC and 1.36 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Trat FC vs Muangthong United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Trat FC come into this having played 9 games, going 3W 3D 3L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Trat FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Muangthong United sit at 1.11 PPG from 9 outings (3W 1D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Trat FC against 1.11 for Muangthong United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Trat FC's home form reads 3W 2D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Trat FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Muangthong United have taken 1.20 points per game from 5 outings (2W 0D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trat FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Trat FC are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 1.44 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trat FC
Blended
Muangthong United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trat FC and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
Trat FC have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 games (1.33 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 3W 1D 5L in their last 9 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trat FC at home or Muangthong United away?
Trat FC's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trat FC at home: 2.20 PPG; Muangthong United away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Trat FC or Muangthong United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trat FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Muangthong United in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Trat FC
0
Draws
2
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trat FC and Muangthong United?
From 2 meetings on record, Trat FC have won 0, Muangthong United have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Trat FC and Muangthong United last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Muangthong United 2-0 Trat FC.
Who has won more matches between Trat FC and Muangthong United?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Trat FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Trat FC, 80% for Muangthong United — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Trat FC and 80% for Muangthong United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trat FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trat FC home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trat FC play Muangthong United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Trat FC's games and 80% of Muangthong United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trat FC vs Muangthong United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Trat FC's matches and 80% of Muangthong United's.
Do Trat FC and Muangthong United tend to score early?
Trat FC have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Muangthong United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Muangthong United defy the odds to beat Trat FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Muangthong United beat Trat FC 0-1 at Trat Provincial Central Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trat FC 1.84 xG and Muangthong United 1.36 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Trat FC fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trat FC attack 0.96 / defence 1.03 against Muangthong United attack 1.05 / defence 1.12, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trat FC 48% | Draw 24% | Muangthong United 28%, with Trat FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Muangthong United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trat FC 67%, Muangthong United 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trat FC's trading profile (9 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Muangthong United's trading profile (9 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trat FC 1.33 PPG, Muangthong United 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Muangthong United win broke the near-deadlock. Trat FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Muangthong United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.