Trat FC 2-2 Khon Kaen United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trat FC at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trat FC vs Khon Kaen United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Trat Provincial Central Stadium plays host to Trat FC versus Khon Kaen United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Monday 27 November 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Trat FC have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Trat FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Trat Provincial Central Stadium, Trat FC have gone 3W 2D 1L this season (6 games, 1.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.83 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Trat FC are significantly better at Trat Provincial Central Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Khon Kaen United (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Khon Kaen United have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Trat FC — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Khon Kaen United — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trat FC 40% versus Khon Kaen United 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trat FC 60% | Khon Kaen United 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trat FC 1.81 xG and Khon Kaen United 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trat FC attack 0.837 / defence 1.027 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.998 / defence 1.328. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.253. Khon Kaen United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.328 — this is suppressing Trat FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Trat FC games / 40 Khon Kaen United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trat FC 49% | Draw 25% | Khon Kaen United 26%. Fair-value odds: Trat FC 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Khon Kaen United 3.85. Trat FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Trat FC as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trat FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Trat FC 50% | Khon Kaen United 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trat FC vs Khon Kaen United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Trat Provincial Central Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 27 Nov 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trat FC 49% | Draw 25% | Khon Kaen United 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Trat FC 1.81 / Khon Kaen United 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Trat FC attack 0.837 / def 1.027 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.998 / def 1.328 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Trat FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Trat FC xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Khon Kaen United xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trat FC vs Khon Kaen United kick off?
Trat FC vs Khon Kaen United kicked off at 11:30 on Monday 27 November 2023 at Trat Provincial Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Trat FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Trat FC 2 - 2 Khon Kaen United.
Where is Trat FC vs Khon Kaen United being played?
The match is being played at Trat Provincial Central Stadium.
What competition is Trat FC vs Khon Kaen United part of?
Trat FC vs Khon Kaen United is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Trat FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Our statistical model gives Trat FC a 49% chance of winning, Khon Kaen United a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Trat FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trat FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Trat FC and Khon Kaen United will score (BTTS).
Will Trat FC vs Khon Kaen United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trat FC and Khon Kaen United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Trat FC and Khon Kaen United in?
Trat FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Khon Kaen United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Trat FC's attack rating (0.84) and Khon Kaen United's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Khon Kaen United's attack (1.00x) against Trat FC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trat FC Win
49%
2.04
25%
4.06
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Trat FC xG
Total xG
3.09
1.28
Khon Kaen United xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
16%
6.10
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
4%
23.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.5 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trat FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Trat FC and Khon Kaen United expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Trat FC and 1.28 for Khon Kaen United, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Trat FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Trat FC come into this having played 10 games, going 3W 3D 4L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Trat FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Khon Kaen United sit at 1.00 PPG from 10 outings (2W 4D 4L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Trat FC against 1.00 for Khon Kaen United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Trat FC's home form reads 3W 1D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Trat FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Khon Kaen United have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trat FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Trat FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Khon Kaen United are on 1.40 scored and 2.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khon Kaen United in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trat FC
Blended
Khon Kaen United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trat FC and Khon Kaen United in coming into this match?
Trat FC have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 games (1.20 PPG), while Khon Kaen United have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trat FC at home or Khon Kaen United away?
Trat FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trat FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Khon Kaen United away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Trat FC or Khon Kaen United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trat FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Khon Kaen United in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Trat FC
2
Draws
0
Khon Kaen United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trat FC and Khon Kaen United?
From 2 meetings on record, Trat FC have won 0, Khon Kaen United have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trat FC and Khon Kaen United last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Khon Kaen United 1-1 Trat FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Trat FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trat FC 40%, Khon Kaen United 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Trat FC) and 60% (Khon Kaen United).
On the defensive side: Trat FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Trat FC have failed to score in 40% of games; Khon Kaen United in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trat FC home games / Khon Kaen United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trat FC play Khon Kaen United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Trat FC's recent matches and 60% of Khon Kaen United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trat FC vs Khon Kaen United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Trat FC's recent games and 60% of Khon Kaen United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trat FC and Khon Kaen United tend to score early?
Trat FC have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Khon Kaen United in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trat FC and Khon Kaen United share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trat FC and Khon Kaen United finished level at 2-2 at Trat Provincial Central Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trat FC 1.81 xG and Khon Kaen United 1.28 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trat FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.03 against Khon Kaen United attack 1.00 / defence 1.33, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trat FC 49% | Draw 25% | Khon Kaen United 26%, with Trat FC to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trat FC 60%, Khon Kaen United 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trat FC's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trat FC 1.20 PPG, Khon Kaen United 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Trat FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.