Police Tero 2-2 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Police Tero at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Police Tero vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Lamphun Warrior travel to Boonyachinda Stadium to take on Police Tero. The game is scheduled for Monday 6 November 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Police Tero stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Police Tero have posted 4W 4D 2L at Boonyachinda Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lamphun Warrior — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Lamphun Warrior have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Police Tero 1.40 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Police Tero, 0 for Lamphun Warrior and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Police Tero in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 37% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Police Tero 69% versus Lamphun Warrior 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Police Tero 64% | Lamphun Warrior 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Police Tero 1.86 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Police Tero attack 0.963 / defence 1.208 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.824 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.676 / away 1.246. Data: 39 Police Tero games / 39 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Police Tero 52% | Draw 23% | Lamphun Warrior 25%. Fair-value odds: Police Tero 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | Lamphun Warrior 4.00. Police Tero hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Police Tero as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Police Tero offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Police Tero 90% | Lamphun Warrior 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Police Tero vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Boonyachinda Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 6 Nov 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Police Tero 52% | Draw 23% | Lamphun Warrior 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Police Tero 1.86 / Lamphun Warrior 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Police Tero attack 0.963 / def 1.208 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.824 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.676 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Police Tero (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Police Tero xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Lamphun Warrior xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Police Tero vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Police Tero vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 13:00 on Monday 6 November 2023 at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What was the final score in Police Tero vs Lamphun Warrior?
Police Tero 2 - 2 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Police Tero vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What competition is Police Tero vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Police Tero vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Police Tero vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Police Tero a 52% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Police Tero the favourite.
Will both teams score in Police Tero vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Police Tero and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Police Tero vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (2 meetings): Police Tero 0W | Draws 2 | Lamphun Warrior 0W.
What form are Police Tero and Lamphun Warrior in?
Police Tero (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Police Tero's attack rating (0.96) and Lamphun Warrior's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Police Tero's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Police Tero Win
52%
1.94
23%
4.29
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Police Tero xG
Total xG
3.10
1.24
Lamphun Warrior xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
16%
6.41
Win to Nil
15%
6.71
4%
25.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Police Tero vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Police Tero and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Police Tero and 1.24 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Police Tero vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, Police Tero have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 14W 12D 13L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamphun Warrior's form line: 11W 10D 18L from 39 games, 1.10 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Police Tero on 1.38 PPG, Lamphun Warrior on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Police Tero have posted 1.84 PPG from 19 outings (9W 8D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Police Tero are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lamphun Warrior have gone 3W 4D 12L from 19 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lamphun Warrior's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Police Tero come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Police Tero are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 0.90 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Police Tero have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Police Tero
Blended
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Police Tero and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Police Tero have gone 14W 12D 13L in their last 39 games (1.38 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 11W 10D 18L in their last 39 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Police Tero at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Police Tero's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Police Tero at home: 1.84 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Police Tero and Lamphun Warrior runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Police Tero's record when hosting Lamphun Warrior specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Police Tero
4
Draws
0
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Lamphun Warrior?
From 4 meetings on record, Police Tero have won 0, Lamphun Warrior have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Police Tero and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2024, when Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Police Tero.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Lamphun Warrior see a goal before the break in 37% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Police Tero 68%, Lamphun Warrior 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Police Tero) and 37% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Police Tero keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Lamphun Warrior in 63%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Police Tero home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Police Tero play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Police Tero's recent matches and 32% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Police Tero vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Police Tero's recent games and 37% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Police Tero and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Police Tero have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 37% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Police Tero and Lamphun Warrior share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Police Tero and Lamphun Warrior finished level at 2-2 at Boonyachinda Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Police Tero 1.86 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.24 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Police Tero attack 0.96 / defence 1.21 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.82 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Police Tero 52% | Draw 23% | Lamphun Warrior 25%, with Police Tero to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Police Tero 64%, Lamphun Warrior 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Police Tero's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Police Tero 1.38 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Police Tero (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.58 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.