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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Ratchaburi edge out Sukhothai FC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ratchaburi beat Sukhothai FC 1-2 at Thalay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.19 xG and Ratchaburi 1.59 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.87 / defence 0.93 against Ratchaburi attack 1.57 / defence 0.93, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 26% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 44%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 48%, Ratchaburi 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Ratchaburi's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights