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Dominant Sukhothai FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Muangthong United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sukhothai FC beat Muangthong United 3-0 at Thalay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.29 xG and Muangthong United 0.87 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Sukhothai FC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Muangthong United landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.00 against Muangthong United attack 0.85 / defence 1.03, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 44% | Draw 34% | Muangthong United 22%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 49%, Muangthong United 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Muangthong United's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.03 PPG, Muangthong United 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sukhothai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Muangthong United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights