Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior Prediction & Preview

Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior at 49% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Sukhothai FC welcome Lamphun Warrior to Thalay Luang Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 22). Kick-off is Saturday 20 March 2027 at 11:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Sukhothai FC have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Sukhothai FC at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Lamphun Warrior stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Lamphun Warrior's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sukhothai FC 1.30 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

Despite the home advantage, Lamphun Warrior have the better record in our head-to-head data — 6 wins from 9 H2H matches against 2 for Sukhothai FC.

The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Nov 2026, ended Sukhothai FC 0–0 Lamphun Warrior — a draw.

Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 6 wins from 9 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

In-Play Data

Sukhothai FC trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

Lamphun Warrior trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 70%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 47% versus Lamphun Warrior 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 45% | Lamphun Warrior 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sukhothai FC surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Lamphun Warrior have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.27 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 1.164 / defence 1.111 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.154 / defence 0.778. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.430. Lamphun Warrior bring a tight defence (rating 0.778, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Sukhothai FC's projected output down. Data: built from Sukhothai FC's last 38 games and Lamphun Warrior's last 38.

Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 25% | Draw 25% | Lamphun Warrior 49%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 3.96 | Draw 3.93 | Lamphun Warrior 2.03. Lamphun Warrior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.27 / 1.83) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamphun Warrior at 49% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Lamphun Warrior 6 wins from 9 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sukhothai FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Lamphun Warrior 50% (last 10 away games).

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