Sukhothai FC 4-0 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 7 as Sukhothai FC welcome Lamphun Warrior to Thung Talay Luang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 September 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sukhothai FC at Thung Talay Luang Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thung Talay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamphun Warrior's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lamphun Warrior are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sukhothai FC, 3 for Lamphun Warrior and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 0–3 with Lamphun Warrior winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sukhothai FC trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Lamphun Warrior trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sukhothai FC 64% and Lamphun Warrior 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sukhothai FC 69% | Lamphun Warrior 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.60 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.978 / defence 1.223 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.002 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.737 / away 1.209. Data: 36 Sukhothai FC games / 36 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 37% | Draw 30% | Lamphun Warrior 32%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Lamphun Warrior 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sukhothai FC at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lamphun Warrior (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sukhothai FC 50% | Lamphun Warrior 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 37% | Draw 30% | Lamphun Warrior 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 65% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.60 / Lamphun Warrior 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.978 / def 1.223 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.002 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.737 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Lamphun Warrior xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Sukhothai FC 4 - 0 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 37% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (4 meetings): Sukhothai FC 1W | Draws 0 | Lamphun Warrior 3W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 0.98x the league average against Lamphun Warrior's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
37%
2.68
30%
3.29
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
3.08
1.48
Lamphun Warrior xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
8%
11.78
7%
15.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.48 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Sukhothai FC have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 10W 6D 20L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lamphun Warrior's form line: 11W 10D 15L from 36 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sukhothai FC on 1.00 PPG, Lamphun Warrior on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sukhothai FC have posted 1.44 PPG from 18 outings (8W 2D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lamphun Warrior have gone 2W 6D 10L from 18 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lamphun Warrior's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sukhothai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.47 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Lamphun Warrior in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 10W 6D 20L in their last 36 games (1.00 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 11W 10D 15L in their last 36 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.44 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Lamphun Warrior have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2024, when Sukhothai FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Lamphun Warrior specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sukhothai FC
0
Draws
6
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior?
From 8 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 2, Lamphun Warrior have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 3-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 56%, Lamphun Warrior 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Sukhothai FC and 61% for Lamphun Warrior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Lamphun Warrior in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Sukhothai FC's recent matches and 50% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Sukhothai FC's matches and 61% of Lamphun Warrior's.
Do Sukhothai FC and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sukhothai FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Lamphun Warrior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC beat Lamphun Warrior 4-0 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.60 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.48 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Sukhothai FC beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lamphun Warrior landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.22 against Lamphun Warrior attack 1.00 / defence 0.94, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 37% | Draw 30% | Lamphun Warrior 32%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 69%, Lamphun Warrior 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.00 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sukhothai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.