Lamphun Warrior 1-0 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi meet at 700th Anniversary Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 September 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lamphun Warrior's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Lamphun Warrior have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Lamphun Warrior are significantly better at 700th Anniversary Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Ratchaburi have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Lamphun Warrior, 0.90 for Ratchaburi — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Lamphun Warrior, 2 for Ratchaburi and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 0–2 with Ratchaburi winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Lamphun Warrior — key trading statistics (35 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (35 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 63% versus Ratchaburi 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 63% | Ratchaburi 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.64 xG and Ratchaburi 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.045 / defence 1.114 | Ratchaburi attack 0.800 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.728 / away 1.265. Data: 35 Lamphun Warrior games / 35 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 46% | Draw 31% | Ratchaburi 23%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Ratchaburi 4.35. Lamphun Warrior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lamphun Warrior are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 80% | Ratchaburi 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 46% | Draw 31% | Ratchaburi 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.64 / Ratchaburi 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.045 / def 1.114 | Ratchaburi attack 0.800 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.728 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Ratchaburi xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi?
Lamphun Warrior 1 - 0 Ratchaburi.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 46% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi?
Record (4 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 0W | Draws 2 | Ratchaburi 2W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Ratchaburi (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (1.04) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (0.80x) against Lamphun Warrior's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
46%
2.18
31%
3.18
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.77
1.13
Ratchaburi xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
15%
6.74
4%
22.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.6 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.13 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lamphun Warrior's recent record stands at 10W 10D 15L from 35 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 12W 8D 15L across 35 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Lamphun Warrior against 1.26 for Ratchaburi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lamphun Warrior have managed 8W 4D 4L from 16 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Lamphun Warrior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 3W 5D 8L across 16 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.37 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
Ratchaburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 10W 10D 15L in their last 35 games (1.14 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 12W 8D 15L in their last 35 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Ratchaburi away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.75 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Ratchaburi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ratchaburi won 5-0 on 18 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Lamphun Warrior
3
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi?
From 8 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 1-2 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 75%, Ratchaburi 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Lamphun Warrior) and 31% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Ratchaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 38% of Ratchaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 31% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lamphun Warrior edge out Ratchaburi 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior beat Ratchaburi 1-0 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.64 xG and Ratchaburi 1.13 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ratchaburi landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 1.04 / defence 1.11 against Ratchaburi attack 0.80 / defence 0.91, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 46% | Draw 31% | Ratchaburi 23%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 63%, Ratchaburi 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (35 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (35 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.14 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamphun Warrior win broke the near-deadlock. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.