Lamphun Warrior 4-1 Rayong FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Rayong FC travel to 700th Anniversary Stadium to take on Lamphun Warrior. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 September 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamphun Warrior's home record at 700th Anniversary Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rayong FC — All Games: 1W 2D 4L from 7 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.71 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.71 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Rayong FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Rayong FC have posted 1W 0D 2L from 3 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lamphun Warrior 1.20 PPG, Rayong FC 0.71 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Rayong FC in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 43% versus Rayong FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 43% | Rayong FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 2.07 xG and Rayong FC 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.010 / defence 1.034 | Rayong FC attack 0.797 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.147. Rayong FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing Lamphun Warrior's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Lamphun Warrior games / 7 Rayong FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 61% | Draw 26% | Rayong FC 13%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 1.64 | Draw 3.85 | Rayong FC 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Lamphun Warrior (61%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lamphun Warrior are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Lamphun Warrior 70% | Rayong FC 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 61% | Draw 26% | Rayong FC 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG Lamphun Warrior 2.07 / Rayong FC 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.010 / def 1.034 | Rayong FC attack 0.797 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Rayong FC xG
56%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC?
Lamphun Warrior 4 - 1 Rayong FC.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 61% chance of winning, Rayong FC a 13% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Rayong FC (all comps): 1W-2D-4L in 7 | 0.71 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lamphun Warrior's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Rayong FC's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.07. The same calculation in reverse, Rayong FC's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
61%
1.65
26%
3.84
13%
7.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
3.02
0.95
Rayong FC xG
1.65
61%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
7.45
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
13%
7.96
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
2%
59.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 0.95 for Rayong FC, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lamphun Warrior's recent record stands at 2W 2D 3L from 7 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rayong FC, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 4L across 7 games — 0.71 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Rayong FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lamphun Warrior by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rayong FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lamphun Warrior have managed 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Lamphun Warrior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rayong FC's away record stands at 1W 0D 2L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Rayong FC are on 0.71 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
Rayong FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 games (1.14 PPG), while Rayong FC have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Rayong FC away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 2.33 PPG; Rayong FC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Sep 2024, when Lamphun Warrior won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting Rayong FC specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Lamphun Warrior
2
Draws
0
Rayong FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, Rayong FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Rayong FC 1-1 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Lamphun Warrior 33% BTTS, Rayong FC 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Lamphun Warrior) and 67% (Rayong FC).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Rayong FC in 33%; Rayong FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Rayong FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Rayong FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 33% of Rayong FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Rayong FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 67% of Rayong FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Rayong FC tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Rayong FC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lamphun Warrior run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Rayong FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior beat Rayong FC 4-1 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 2.07 xG and Rayong FC 0.95 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 1.01 / defence 1.03 against Rayong FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.23, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 61% | Draw 26% | Rayong FC 13%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 43%, Rayong FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Rayong FC's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lamphun Warrior arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.71. That form edge translated into the three points. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Rayong FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.