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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sukhothai FC and Ayutthaya FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Thalay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Sukhothai FC and Ayutthaya FC drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.12 xG and Ayutthaya FC 0.98 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.78 / defence 0.87 against Ayutthaya FC attack 1.00 / defence 0.93, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 38% | Draw 32% | Ayutthaya FC 30%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 32%, Ayutthaya FC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sukhothai FC's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.05 PPG, Ayutthaya FC 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights