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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Rayong FC and Lamphun Warrior share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayong FC and Lamphun Warrior finished level at 1-1 at Rayong Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.66 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.94 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 1.14 / defence 1.07 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.81 / defence 0.99, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 53% | Draw 28% | Lamphun Warrior 19%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 61%, Lamphun Warrior 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayong FC's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rayong FC 1.14 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights