🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Rayong FC edge out Kanchanaburi 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayong FC beat Kanchanaburi 2-1 at Rayong Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.97 xG and Kanchanaburi 0.98 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 1.13 / defence 1.07 against Kanchanaburi attack 0.82 / defence 1.20, drawn from 53/25 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 58% | Draw 26% | Kanchanaburi 16%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 52%, Kanchanaburi 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayong FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.

Kanchanaburi's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Rayong FC arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights