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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Rayong FC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Buriram United.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rayong FC beat Buriram United 3-0 at Rayong Provincial Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.38 xG and Buriram United 1.80 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Rayong FC beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Buriram United landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 1.10 / defence 1.08 against Buriram United attack 1.56 / defence 0.88, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 27% | Draw 27% | Buriram United 46%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Rayong FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 60%, Buriram United 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rayong FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.

Buriram United's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Rayong FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rayong FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights