Ratchaburi vs Sisaket United – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ratchaburi vs Sisaket United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Ratchaburi welcome Sisaket United to Dragon Solar Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 March 2027 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ratchaburi have posted 6W 2D 2L at Dragon Solar Park — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sisaket United — All Games: 1W 0D 2L from 3 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Sisaket United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Ratchaburi have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Data
Ratchaburi trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
Sisaket United trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 67% versus Sisaket United 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ratchaburi 33% | Sisaket United 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.56 xG and Sisaket United 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.109 / defence 0.856 | Sisaket United attack 0.850 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.221. Data: 33 Ratchaburi games / 3 Sisaket United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 53% | Draw 25% | Sisaket United 21%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Sisaket United 4.76. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ratchaburi as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ratchaburi 70% | Sisaket United 33%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Sisaket United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 53% | Draw 25% | Sisaket United 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Ratchaburi 1.56 / Sisaket United 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.109 / def 0.856 | Sisaket United attack 0.850 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Sisaket United xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Sisaket United kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Sisaket United is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Dragon Solar Park.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Sisaket United being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Sisaket United part of?
Ratchaburi vs Sisaket United is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Sisaket United?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 53% chance of winning, Sisaket United a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Sisaket United?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Ratchaburi and Sisaket United will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Sisaket United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Sisaket United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ratchaburi and Sisaket United in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Sisaket United (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ratchaburi's attack rating (1.11) and Sisaket United's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sisaket United's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
53%
1.88
25%
3.94
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.45
0.89
Sisaket United xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
4%
22.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.0 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Sisaket United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Sisaket United expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.89 for Sisaket United, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Sisaket United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Ratchaburi have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 1W 1D 1L record — L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sisaket United's form line: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Sisaket United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ratchaburi on 1.33 PPG, Sisaket United on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sisaket United are on 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ratchaburi have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Early Season
Sisaket United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Sisaket United in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Sisaket United have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Ratchaburi or Sisaket United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sisaket United in 33%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sisaket United see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 67%, Sisaket United 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Ratchaburi and 33% for Sisaket United.
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sisaket United in 33%; Sisaket United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Sisaket United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Sisaket United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 33% of Sisaket United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Sisaket United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 33% of Sisaket United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Sisaket United tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sisaket United in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.