Ratchaburi vs Sisaket United Prediction & Preview

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Poisson rates Ratchaburi at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ratchaburi vs Sisaket United encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Ratchaburi welcome Sisaket United to Dragon Solar Park in Thai League 1 (matchday 21). Kick-off is Saturday 13 March 2027 at 11:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Ratchaburi have gone 6W 1D 3L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Ratchaburi have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Sisaket United — last 8 games: 3W 1D 4L — 1.25 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.38 per game is modest, conceding 1.88 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings (12%). Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Sisaket United's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 2L across their last 4 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On current form, Ratchaburi have the edge — a 0.65 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.25) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Both teams have scored in at least 75% of each side's games (from Ratchaburi's last 10 home games and Sisaket United's last 4 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Ratchaburi have won 1, Sisaket United 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 7.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Oct 2026, ended Ratchaburi 5–2 Sisaket United — a Ratchaburi win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 7.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Ratchaburi trading profile (last 8 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).

Sisaket United trading profile (last 8 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ratchaburi 75% and Sisaket United 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Ratchaburi 75% | Sisaket United 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 2.28 xG and Sisaket United 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.373 / defence 0.945 | Sisaket United attack 1.003 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.430. Ratchaburi carry an above-average attack rating of 1.373 — their 2.28 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Ratchaburi's last 38 games and Sisaket United's last 8.

Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 57% | Draw 22% | Sisaket United 21%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.75 | Draw 4.60 | Sisaket United 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (2.28 / 1.35) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Ratchaburi as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.63 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ratchaburi's last 10 home games and Sisaket United's last 4 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ratchaburi 80% (last 10 home games) | Sisaket United 75% (last 4 away games).

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