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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Ratchaburi run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Rayong FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ratchaburi beat Rayong FC 6-1 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 2.17 xG and Rayong FC 1.09 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Ratchaburi beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.03 / defence 1.06 against Rayong FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.42, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 60% | Draw 23% | Rayong FC 17%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 59%, Rayong FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ratchaburi's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Rayong FC's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm. Rayong FC (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 2.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights