Chiangrai United 3-0 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chiangrai United at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chiangrai United host Uthai Thani at LEO Chiangrai Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 2). Kick-off is Saturday 19 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Chiangrai United — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Chiangrai United have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 1 games, Uthai Thani have recorded 0W 0D 1L — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 4.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 4.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On current form, Chiangrai United have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams have scored in at least 90% of each side's games (from Chiangrai United's last 10 home games and Uthai Thani's last 1 games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.70 xG and Uthai Thani 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 1.056 / defence 1.039 | Uthai Thani attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.180. Data: built from Chiangrai United's last 31 games and Uthai Thani's last 1. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 52% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 23%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 1.91 | Draw 4.06 | Uthai Thani 4.36. Chiangrai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Chiangrai United's last 10 home games and Uthai Thani's last 1 games) averaging 4.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's sample (Chiangrai United 31 games, Uthai Thani 1) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 2 | Venue: LEO Chiangrai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chiangrai United 52% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Chiangrai United 1.70 / Uthai Thani 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Chiangrai United attack 1.056 / def 1.039 | Uthai Thani attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Chiangrai United xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Uthai Thani xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani FAQs
What time does Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 19 August 2023 at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What was the final score in Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani?
Chiangrai United 3 - 0 Uthai Thani.
Where is Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at LEO Chiangrai Stadium.
What competition is Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani part of?
Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 2) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Chiangrai United a 52% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Chiangrai United's attack at 1.06x the league average against Uthai Thani's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Uthai Thani's attack versus Chiangrai United's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Chiangrai United's last 31 games and Uthai Thani's last 1, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
52%
1.91
25%
4.06
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Chiangrai United xG
Total xG
2.74
1.04
Uthai Thani xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
4%
23.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Chiangrai United and 1.04 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chiangrai United's recent record stands at 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W in the last five.
Uthai Thani, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chiangrai United by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Uthai Thani heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Chiangrai United are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.00 scored and 4.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Uthai Thani in 100%.
Defensively: Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chiangrai United
Early Season
Uthai Thani
Early Season
Chiangrai United (Home) vs Uthai Thani (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chiangrai United
Early Season
Uthai Thani
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani Form FAQs
What form are Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Chiangrai United have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Chiangrai United or Uthai Thani been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chiangrai United have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Uthai Thani in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2023. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Aug 2023, when Chiangrai United won Chiangrai United 3-0 Uthai Thani.
Chiangrai United's record when hosting Uthai Thani specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Chiangrai United
3
Draws
1
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Chiangrai United have won 3, Uthai Thani have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Uthai Thani 2-2 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chiangrai United home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chiangrai United vs Uthai Thani Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 100% of Uthai Thani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Chiangrai United's recent games and 100% of Uthai Thani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chiangrai United and Uthai Thani matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Chiangrai United's recent matches and 100% of Uthai Thani's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Chiangrai United run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Uthai Thani.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chiangrai United beat Uthai Thani 3-0 at LEO Chiangrai Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chiangrai United 1.70 xG and Uthai Thani 1.04 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Chiangrai United beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Uthai Thani landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chiangrai United attack 1.06 / defence 1.04 against Uthai Thani attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Chiangrai United 52% | Draw 25% | Uthai Thani 23%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chiangrai United 0%, Uthai Thani 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Chiangrai United arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Chiangrai United scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Uthai Thani managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 3 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.