Ratchaburi 3-0 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 12 as Ratchaburi welcome Chiangrai United to Dragon Solar Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 1 December 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ratchaburi have posted 3W 4D 3L at Dragon Solar Park — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Chiangrai United — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Chiangrai United have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Ratchaburi) versus 1.60 (Chiangrai United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ratchaburi register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Chiangrai United in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ratchaburi, 1 for Chiangrai United and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Ratchaburi trading profile (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Chiangrai United trading profile (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ratchaburi 52% and Chiangrai United 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 30% | Chiangrai United 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.73 xG and Chiangrai United 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.164 / defence 1.003 | Chiangrai United attack 0.909 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.629 / away 1.263. Data: 41 Ratchaburi games / 40 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 50% | Draw 25% | Chiangrai United 25%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Chiangrai United 4.00. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ratchaburi as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 0.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 80% | Chiangrai United 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Friday 1 Dec 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 50% | Draw 25% | Chiangrai United 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Ratchaburi 1.73 / Chiangrai United 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.164 / def 1.003 | Chiangrai United attack 0.909 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.629 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Chiangrai United xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 1 December 2023 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United?
Ratchaburi 3 - 0 Chiangrai United.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United part of?
Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 50% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United?
Record (4 meetings): Ratchaburi 0W | Draws 3 | Chiangrai United 1W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Chiangrai United (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ratchaburi's attack at 1.16x the league average against Chiangrai United's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
50%
2.00
25%
3.93
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.88
1.15
Chiangrai United xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
4%
22.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.2 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.15 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ratchaburi's recent record stands at 12W 14D 14L from 40 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chiangrai United, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 12L across 40 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ratchaburi on 1.25 PPG, Chiangrai United on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ratchaburi have managed 7W 8D 4L from 19 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chiangrai United's away record stands at 5W 5D 9L across 19 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chiangrai United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.40 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United in 68%.
Last 40 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Chiangrai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 12W 14D 14L in their last 40 games (1.25 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 16W 12D 12L in their last 40 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Chiangrai United away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.53 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Chiangrai United have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2023, when Ratchaburi won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Chiangrai United specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ratchaburi
3
Draws
4
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United?
From 10 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 3, Chiangrai United have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Chiangrai United 1-0 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ratchaburi at 68%, Chiangrai United at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Ratchaburi) and 63% (Chiangrai United).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Chiangrai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Ratchaburi's games and 68% of Chiangrai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 63% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ratchaburi run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Chiangrai United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Chiangrai United 3-0 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.73 xG and Chiangrai United 1.15 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Ratchaburi beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chiangrai United landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.16 / defence 1.00 against Chiangrai United attack 0.91 / defence 0.91, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 50% | Draw 25% | Chiangrai United 25%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 30%, Chiangrai United 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.25 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.