BG Pathum United 2-1 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BG Pathum United at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Ratchaburi travel to BG Stadium to take on BG Pathum United. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 December 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, BG Pathum United have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BG Pathum United's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at BG Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Ratchaburi — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Ratchaburi have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
BG Pathum United carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for BG Pathum United, 1 for Ratchaburi and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2023, ended 4–2 with BG Pathum United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
BG Pathum United trading profile (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Ratchaburi trading profile (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 37% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BG Pathum United 42% versus Ratchaburi 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BG Pathum United 56% | Ratchaburi 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BG Pathum United 1.82 xG and Ratchaburi 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BG Pathum United attack 1.246 / defence 0.842 | Ratchaburi attack 0.788 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.245. Data: 41 BG Pathum United games / 42 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BG Pathum United 60% | Draw 24% | Ratchaburi 16%. Fair-value odds: BG Pathum United 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Ratchaburi 6.25. The model has a clear lean to BG Pathum United (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BG Pathum United are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: BG Pathum United 50% | Ratchaburi 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: BG Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Dec 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BG Pathum United 60% | Draw 24% | Ratchaburi 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 48% | xG BG Pathum United 1.82 / Ratchaburi 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: BG Pathum United attack 1.246 / def 0.842 | Ratchaburi attack 0.788 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
BG Pathum United xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Ratchaburi xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi kick off?
BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 9 December 2023 at BG Stadium.
What was the final score in BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi?
BG Pathum United 2 - 1 Ratchaburi.
Where is BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at BG Stadium.
What competition is BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi part of?
BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives BG Pathum United a 60% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi?
Record (4 meetings): BG Pathum United 2W | Draws 1 | Ratchaburi 1W.
What form are BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi in?
BG Pathum United (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Ratchaburi (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from BG Pathum United's attack rating (1.25) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus BG Pathum United's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
60%
1.66
24%
4.20
16%
6.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
BG Pathum United xG
Total xG
2.64
0.82
Ratchaburi xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
6.27
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
16%
6.16
Win to Nil
26%
3.79
3%
38.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 10.7 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for BG Pathum United and 0.82 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, BG Pathum United have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 19W 8D 14L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi's form line: 13W 14D 14L from 41 games, 1.29 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: BG Pathum United on 1.59 PPG, Ratchaburi on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, BG Pathum United have posted 2.16 PPG from 19 outings (13W 2D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — BG Pathum United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 3W 6D 10L from 19 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ratchaburi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BG Pathum United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
BG Pathum United are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.24 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BG Pathum United
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
BG Pathum United have gone 19W 8D 14L in their last 41 games (1.59 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 13W 14D 14L in their last 41 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BG Pathum United at home or Ratchaburi away?
BG Pathum United's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BG Pathum United at home: 2.16 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 0.79 PPG.
Have BG Pathum United or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
BG Pathum United have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Nov 2022, when Ratchaburi won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BG Pathum United's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
BG Pathum United
3
Draws
3
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, BG Pathum United have won 4, Ratchaburi have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when BG Pathum United 2-2 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 37% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BG Pathum United 47%, Ratchaburi 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (BG Pathum United) and 32% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: BG Pathum United keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Ratchaburi in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BG Pathum United home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BG Pathum United play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of BG Pathum United's recent matches and 42% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is BG Pathum United vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of BG Pathum United's recent games and 32% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do BG Pathum United and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
BG Pathum United have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 37% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as BG Pathum United edge out Ratchaburi 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BG Pathum United beat Ratchaburi 2-1 at BG Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BG Pathum United 1.82 xG and Ratchaburi 0.82 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BG Pathum United attack 1.25 / defence 0.84 against Ratchaburi attack 0.79 / defence 0.89, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BG Pathum United 60% | Draw 24% | Ratchaburi 16%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BG Pathum United 56%, Ratchaburi 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BG Pathum United's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BG Pathum United 1.59 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BG Pathum United win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.