Uthai Thani 0-0 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 12 as Uthai Thani welcome Sukhothai FC to Uthai Thani Province Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 1 December 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Uthai Thani have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Uthai Thani's home record at Uthai Thani Province Stadium: 2W 0D 4L from 6 Thai League 1 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game.
Sukhothai FC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sukhothai FC have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Uthai Thani) versus 1.10 (Sukhothai FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Uthai Thani in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Sukhothai FC in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Uthai Thani 54% versus Sukhothai FC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Uthai Thani 64% | Sukhothai FC 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.53 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.813 / defence 1.382 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.975 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.629 / away 1.263. Data: 11 Uthai Thani games / 41 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 34% | Draw 25% | Sukhothai FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Sukhothai FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sukhothai FC at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 50% | Sukhothai FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Uthai Thani Province Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 Dec 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 34% | Draw 25% | Sukhothai FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Uthai Thani 1.53 / Sukhothai FC 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 0.813 / def 1.382 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.975 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.629 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Sukhothai FC xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 1 December 2023 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC?
Uthai Thani 0 - 0 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 34% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Uthai Thani's attack at 0.81x the league average against Sukhothai FC's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sukhothai FC's attack versus Uthai Thani's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
34%
2.94
25%
4.04
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
3.23
1.70
Sukhothai FC xG
2.94
34%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
18%
5.48
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
6%
16.11
9%
11.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.3 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.70 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Uthai Thani come into this having played 11 games, going 4W 1D 6L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 1.27 PPG from 11 outings (4W 2D 5L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Uthai Thani on 1.18 PPG, Sukhothai FC on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Uthai Thani's home form reads 2W 0D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 0.80 points per game from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sukhothai FC's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 1.27 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC in 64%.
Last 11 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 4W 1D 6L in their last 11 games (1.18 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 4W 2D 5L in their last 11 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Uthai Thani's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.20 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jan 2025, when Uthai Thani won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Uthai Thani's record when hosting Sukhothai FC specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Uthai Thani
3
Draws
0
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 3, Sukhothai FC have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Sukhothai FC 1-1 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Uthai Thani 40%, Sukhothai FC 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Uthai Thani and 100% for Sukhothai FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Uthai Thani have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Sukhothai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Uthai Thani's games and 80% of Sukhothai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Uthai Thani's matches and 100% of Sukhothai FC's.
Do Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Uthai Thani's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC finished level at 0-0 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.53 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.70 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Uthai Thani fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Sukhothai FC landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.81 / defence 1.38 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.16, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 34% | Draw 25% | Sukhothai FC 41%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 64%, Sukhothai FC 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.18 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.