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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Ayutthaya FC defy the odds to beat Ratchaburi 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ayutthaya FC beat Ratchaburi 1-2 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.31 xG and Ayutthaya FC 0.97 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Ayutthaya FC outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.01 / defence 0.89 against Ayutthaya FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.87, drawn from 51/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 42% | Draw 33% | Ayutthaya FC 25%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Ayutthaya FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 48%, Ayutthaya FC 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ratchaburi's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Ayutthaya FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Ayutthaya FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights