Prachuap vs Buriram United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Buriram United at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Prachuap vs Buriram United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Prachuap welcome Buriram United to Sam Ao Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 March 2027 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Prachuap have posted 6W 3D 1L at Sam Ao Stadium — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sam Ao Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Buriram United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Buriram United have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Prachuap) versus 1.80 (Buriram United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
Buriram United have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 8 of the last 10 encounters against Prachuap's 1 victories.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Buriram United have won 8 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Prachuap trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Buriram United trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 46% versus Buriram United 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 39% | Buriram United 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.09 xG and Buriram United 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.005 / defence 0.803 | Buriram United attack 1.202 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.221. Buriram United have an above-average attack strength of 1.202 — the away xG of 1.18 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Prachuap games / 33 Buriram United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Prachuap 34% | Draw 29% | Buriram United 38%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Buriram United 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Buriram United at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Buriram United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Prachuap 40% | Buriram United 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 34% | Draw 29% | Buriram United 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Prachuap 1.09 / Buriram United 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.005 / def 0.803 | Buriram United attack 1.202 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Buriram United xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Buriram United kick off?
Prachuap vs Buriram United is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Sam Ao Stadium.
Where is Prachuap vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Buriram United part of?
Prachuap vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 34% chance of winning, Buriram United a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Prachuap and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Buriram United?
Record (10 meetings): Prachuap 1W | Draws 1 | Buriram United 8W.
What form are Prachuap and Buriram United in?
Prachuap (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Buriram United (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Prachuap's attack rating (1.00) and Buriram United's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
34%
2.98
29%
3.50
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.27
1.18
Buriram United xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
10%
9.69
13%
7.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.18 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Prachuap come into this having played 33 games, going 13W 12D 8L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Buriram United sit at 2.33 PPG from 33 outings (24W 5D 4L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Buriram United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Prachuap — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Prachuap's home form reads 9W 6D 1L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.06 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Buriram United have taken 2.19 points per game from 16 outings (11W 2D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.45 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Buriram United in 61%.
Defensively: Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Early Season
Buriram United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 13W 12D 8L in their last 33 games (1.55 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 24W 5D 4L in their last 33 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 2.06 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.19 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Buriram United in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Prachuap and Buriram United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 4 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2024, when Buriram United won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Prachuap's record when hosting Buriram United specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Prachuap
1
Draws
8
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Buriram United?
From 10 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 1, Buriram United have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2026, when Prachuap 1-1 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 38%, Buriram United 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Prachuap) and 75% (Buriram United).
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Buriram United in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Buriram United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Prachuap's recent matches and 62% of Buriram United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Prachuap's recent games and 75% of Buriram United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Buriram United tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.