Prachuap 1-2 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Buriram United (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Prachuap face Buriram United.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Prachuap welcome Buriram United to Sam Ao Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 29 January 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Prachuap have posted 6W 4D 0L at Sam Ao Stadium — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sam Ao Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Prachuap are significantly better at Sam Ao Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Buriram United have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Buriram United's 2.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Prachuap's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
Buriram United have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 7 encounters against Prachuap's 1 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2024, ended 0–6 with Buriram United winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Buriram United have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Prachuap trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Buriram United trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 53% versus Buriram United 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 45% | Buriram United 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.32 xG and Buriram United 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.963 / defence 0.877 | Buriram United attack 1.549 / defence 0.773. League average goals — home 1.779 / away 1.176. Buriram United's defence strength of 0.773 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Buriram United have an above-average attack strength of 1.549 — the away xG of 1.60 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Prachuap games / 49 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 31% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 43%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Buriram United 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Buriram United at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Buriram United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Prachuap 40% | Buriram United 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Jan 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 31% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Prachuap 1.32 / Buriram United 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.963 / def 0.877 | Buriram United attack 1.549 / def 0.773 | league avg home 1.779 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Buriram United xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Buriram United kick off?
Prachuap vs Buriram United kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 29 January 2025 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Prachuap 1 - 2 Buriram United.
Where is Prachuap vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Buriram United part of?
Prachuap vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 31% chance of winning, Buriram United a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Prachuap and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Buriram United?
Record (7 meetings): Prachuap 1W | Draws 0 | Buriram United 6W.
What form are Prachuap and Buriram United in?
Prachuap (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Buriram United (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Prachuap's attack rating (0.96) and Buriram United's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
31%
3.25
26%
3.81
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.92
1.60
Buriram United xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
20%
4.94
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
6%
16.03
11%
8.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.60 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Prachuap come into this having played 49 games, going 15W 17D 17L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-W. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Buriram United sit at 2.39 PPG from 49 outings (35W 12D 2L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.12 PPG clear of Prachuap — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Prachuap's home form reads 13W 7D 4L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Buriram United have taken 2.17 points per game from 24 outings (15W 7D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.78 scored and 0.73 conceded.
Defensively: Buriram United in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 15W 17D 17L in their last 49 games (1.27 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 35W 12D 2L in their last 49 (2.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.92 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Buriram United in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Prachuap and Buriram United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 4 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2024, when Buriram United won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Prachuap's record when hosting Buriram United specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Prachuap
1
Draws
8
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Buriram United?
From 10 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 1, Buriram United have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2026, when Prachuap 1-1 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 54%, Buriram United 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Prachuap) and 54% (Buriram United).
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Buriram United in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Buriram United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Prachuap's recent matches and 54% of Buriram United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Prachuap's recent games and 54% of Buriram United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Buriram United tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Buriram United edge out Prachuap 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Prachuap 1-2 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.32 xG and Buriram United 1.60 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.96 / defence 0.88 against Buriram United attack 1.55 / defence 0.77, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 31% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 43%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 45%, Buriram United 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Buriram United's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Prachuap (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.