Prachuap 1-2 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Buriram United (43%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Prachuap face Buriram United.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Prachuap welcome Buriram United to Sam Ao Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 21). Kick-off is Wednesday 29 January 2025 at 11:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Prachuap have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Prachuap have posted 6W 4D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Prachuap are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Buriram United stand at 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Buriram United have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Form points away from home here. Buriram United's 2.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Prachuap's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Buriram United have the better record in our head-to-head data — 6 wins from 7 H2H matches against 1 for Prachuap.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.9 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2024, ended Prachuap 0–6 Buriram United — a Buriram United win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Buriram United have won 6 of 7 H2H matches, and at 2.9 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Prachuap trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Buriram United trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 53% versus Buriram United 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 45% | Buriram United 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.32 xG and Buriram United 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.963 / defence 0.877 | Buriram United attack 1.549 / defence 0.773. League average goals — home 1.779 / away 1.176. Buriram United bring a tight defence (rating 0.773, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Prachuap's projected output down. Buriram United have an above-average attack rating of 1.549, which lifts their away xG to 1.60. Data: built from Prachuap's last 49 games and Buriram United's last 49.
Result probabilities: Prachuap 31% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 43%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 3.25 | Draw 3.81 | Buriram United 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Buriram United at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Buriram United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Prachuap's last 10 home games and Buriram United's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Prachuap 40% (last 10 home games) | Buriram United 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 21 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 January 2025 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 31% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Prachuap 1.32 / Buriram United 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.963 / def 0.877 | Buriram United attack 1.549 / def 0.773 | league avg home 1.779 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Buriram United (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Buriram United xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Prachuap vs Buriram United FAQs
What time does Prachuap vs Buriram United kick off?
Prachuap vs Buriram United kicked off at 11:00 UK time on Wednesday 29 January 2025 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Prachuap 1 - 2 Buriram United.
Where is Prachuap vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Buriram United part of?
Prachuap vs Buriram United is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 21) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 31% chance of winning, Buriram United a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Buriram United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Prachuap and Buriram United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Prachuap vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Prachuap's attack rating (0.96) and Buriram United's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Prachuap's last 49 games and Buriram United's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Buriram United Win
31%
3.25
26%
3.81
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.92
1.60
Buriram United xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
20%
4.94
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
6%
16.03
11%
8.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Prachuap vs Buriram United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.60 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Prachuap come into this having played 49 games, going 15W 17D 17L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Buriram United sit at 2.39 PPG from 49 outings (35W 12D 2L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.12 PPG clear of Prachuap — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Prachuap's home form reads 13W 7D 4L across their last 24 home games, a 1.92 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Buriram United have taken 2.17 points per game from their last 24 away games (15W 7D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.78 scored and 0.73 conceded.
Defensively: Buriram United in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
Prachuap (Home) vs Buriram United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Prachuap
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
❓ Prachuap vs Buriram United Form FAQs
What form are Prachuap and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 15W 17D 17L in their last 49 games (1.27 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 35W 12D 2L in their last 49 (2.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.92 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.17 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Buriram United in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 4 January 2026, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Sep 2024, when Buriram United won Buriram United 6-0 Prachuap.
Prachuap's record when hosting Buriram United specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Prachuap
1
Draws
8
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Prachuap vs Buriram United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Buriram United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Prachuap have won 1, Buriram United have won 8, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Buriram United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 January 2026: Prachuap 1-1 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 54%, Buriram United 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Prachuap) and 54% (Buriram United).
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Buriram United in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Prachuap vs Buriram United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Prachuap and Buriram United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Prachuap's recent matches and 54% of Buriram United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Prachuap and Buriram United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Prachuap's recent games and 54% of Buriram United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Buriram United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Prachuap's recent matches and 62% of Buriram United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Buriram United edge out Prachuap 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Prachuap 1-2 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.32 xG and Buriram United 1.60 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.96 / defence 0.88 against Buriram United attack 1.55 / defence 0.77, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 31% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 43%, with Buriram United to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 45%, Buriram United 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Buriram United's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Prachuap (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.