Lamphun Warrior 1-0 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lamphun Warrior host Sukhothai FC at Lamphun Warriors Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 February 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Lamphun Warrior have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Lamphun Warriors Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sukhothai FC — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Lamphun Warrior) versus 1.50 (Sukhothai FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Lamphun Warrior, 2 for Sukhothai FC and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 0–4 with Sukhothai FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 56% versus Sukhothai FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 58% | Sukhothai FC 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.64 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.874 / defence 1.098 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.812 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.256. Data: 50 Lamphun Warrior games / 50 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 49% | Draw 26% | Sukhothai FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Sukhothai FC 4.00. Lamphun Warrior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lamphun Warrior 40% | Sukhothai FC 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Lamphun Warriors Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Feb 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 49% | Draw 26% | Sukhothai FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.64 / Sukhothai FC 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.874 / def 1.098 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.812 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.718 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Sukhothai FC xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Lamphun Warriors Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC?
Lamphun Warrior 1 - 0 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Lamphun Warriors Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 49% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC?
Record (5 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 3W | Draws 0 | Sukhothai FC 2W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (0.87) and Sukhothai FC's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sukhothai FC's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
49%
2.06
26%
3.82
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.75
1.12
Sukhothai FC xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
5%
20.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.6 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.12 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lamphun Warrior come into this having played 50 games, going 14W 15D 21L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 1.20 PPG from 50 outings (17W 9D 24L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamphun Warrior on 1.14 PPG, Sukhothai FC on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lamphun Warrior's home form reads 11W 6D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Lamphun Warrior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 0.64 points per game from 25 outings (3W 7D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sukhothai FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 1.32 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC in 60%.
Last 50 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 14W 15D 21L in their last 50 games (1.14 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 17W 9D 24L in their last 50 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.56 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lamphun Warrior go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2024, when Sukhothai FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting Sukhothai FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Lamphun Warrior
0
Draws
2
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 6, Sukhothai FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 3-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 64%, Sukhothai FC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Lamphun Warrior and 68% for Sukhothai FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Sukhothai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 64% of Sukhothai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Lamphun Warrior's matches and 68% of Sukhothai FC's.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lamphun Warrior edge out Sukhothai FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior beat Sukhothai FC 1-0 at Lamphun Warriors Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.64 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.12 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sukhothai FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.87 / defence 1.10 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.09, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 49% | Draw 26% | Sukhothai FC 25%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 58%, Sukhothai FC 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.14 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamphun Warrior win broke the near-deadlock. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.