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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Lamphun Warrior host Sukhothai FC at Lamphun Warriors Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 February 2025 at 11:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Lamphun Warrior have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Lamphun Warrior's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Lamphun Warriors Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Sukhothai FC — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sukhothai FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Lamphun Warrior) versus 1.50 (Sukhothai FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Lamphun Warrior, 2 for Sukhothai FC and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 0–4 with Sukhothai FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 56% versus Sukhothai FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 58% | Sukhothai FC 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.64 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.874 / defence 1.098 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.812 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.256. Data: 50 Lamphun Warrior games / 50 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 49% | Draw 26% | Sukhothai FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Sukhothai FC 4.00. Lamphun Warrior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lamphun Warrior 40% | Sukhothai FC 60%.

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