Port FC 3-3 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port FC vs Ratchaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Ratchaburi travel to PAT Stadium to take on Port FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 January 2025, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Port FC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at PAT Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Port FC are significantly better at PAT Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ratchaburi are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Port FC, 1 for Ratchaburi and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Port FC in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Ratchaburi in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 71% versus Ratchaburi 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 67% | Ratchaburi 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.98 xG and Ratchaburi 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.000 / defence 1.020 | Ratchaburi attack 1.117 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.746 / away 1.155. Data: 48 Port FC games / 48 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 52% | Draw 24% | Ratchaburi 24%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Ratchaburi 4.17. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Port FC dominate the H2H record, yet Ratchaburi are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Port FC are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ratchaburi (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.30 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 70% | Ratchaburi 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 24 Jan 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 52% | Draw 24% | Ratchaburi 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Port FC 1.98 / Ratchaburi 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.000 / def 1.020 | Ratchaburi attack 1.117 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.746 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Port FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Ratchaburi xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Port FC vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 24 January 2025 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Ratchaburi?
Port FC 3 - 3 Ratchaburi.
Where is Port FC vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Ratchaburi part of?
Port FC vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 52% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Port FC and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Ratchaburi?
Record (7 meetings): Port FC 3W | Draws 3 | Ratchaburi 1W.
What form are Port FC and Ratchaburi in?
Port FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Port FC's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Ratchaburi's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
52%
1.93
24%
4.15
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Port FC xG
Total xG
3.30
1.32
Ratchaburi xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
14%
7.24
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
3%
29.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Port FC and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Port FC and 1.32 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Port FC have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 24W 14D 10L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi's form line: 19W 10D 19L from 48 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Port FC on 1.79 PPG, Ratchaburi on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Port FC have posted 2.09 PPG from 23 outings (15W 3D 5L).
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 5W 6D 12L from 23 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ratchaburi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Port FC are averaging 2.15 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.44 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 24W 14D 10L in their last 48 games (1.79 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 19W 10D 19L in their last 48 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Ratchaburi away?
Port FC's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.09 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Port FC or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Dec 2023, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Port FC
4
Draws
2
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, Port FC have won 4, Ratchaburi have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Port FC 2-1 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Ratchaburi?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 65%, Ratchaburi 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Port FC) and 44% (Ratchaburi). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Ratchaburi in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Port FC's recent matches and 44% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port FC vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Port FC's matches and 44% of Ratchaburi's.
Do Port FC and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port FC and Ratchaburi share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC and Ratchaburi finished level at 3-3 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.98 xG and Ratchaburi 1.32 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ratchaburi outscored their 1.32 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.02 against Ratchaburi attack 1.12 / defence 1.13, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 52% | Draw 24% | Ratchaburi 24%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 67%, Ratchaburi 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port FC 1.79 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Port FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.