Uthai Thani 3-0 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Uthai Thani at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Uthai Thani welcome Sukhothai FC to Uthai Thani Province Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 January 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Uthai Thani have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Uthai Thani's home record at Uthai Thani Province Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Uthai Thani are significantly better at Uthai Thani Province Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Sukhothai FC — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sukhothai FC have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Sukhothai FC's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Uthai Thani's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Uthai Thani register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sukhothai FC in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Uthai Thani, 0 for Sukhothai FC and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 3–2 with Uthai Thani winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Uthai Thani in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sukhothai FC in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Uthai Thani 57% versus Sukhothai FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 55% | Sukhothai FC 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.37 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.811 / defence 1.054 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.925 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.745 / away 1.189. Data: 47 Uthai Thani games / 48 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 41% | Draw 29% | Sukhothai FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Sukhothai FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Uthai Thani dominate the H2H record, yet Sukhothai FC are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Uthai Thani at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sukhothai FC (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Uthai Thani 60% | Sukhothai FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Uthai Thani Province Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jan 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Uthai Thani 41% | Draw 29% | Sukhothai FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Uthai Thani 1.37 / Sukhothai FC 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Uthai Thani attack 0.811 / def 1.054 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.925 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.745 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Uthai Thani xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Sukhothai FC xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 26 January 2025 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What was the final score in Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC?
Uthai Thani 3 - 0 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Uthai Thani Province Stadium.
What competition is Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Uthai Thani a 41% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC?
Record (3 meetings): Uthai Thani 2W | Draws 1 | Sukhothai FC 0W.
What form are Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC in?
Uthai Thani (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Uthai Thani's attack at 0.81x the league average against Sukhothai FC's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sukhothai FC's attack versus Uthai Thani's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
41%
2.46
29%
3.48
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Uthai Thani xG
Total xG
2.53
1.16
Sukhothai FC xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
8%
12.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Uthai Thani and 1.16 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Uthai Thani come into this having played 47 games, going 14W 12D 21L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 1.21 PPG from 47 outings (16W 9D 22L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Uthai Thani on 1.15 PPG, Sukhothai FC on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Uthai Thani's home form reads 7W 8D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 0.59 points per game from 22 outings (2W 7D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sukhothai FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Uthai Thani come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Uthai Thani are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 1.34 scored and 1.87 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Uthai Thani
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Uthai Thani have gone 14W 12D 21L in their last 47 games (1.15 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 16W 9D 22L in their last 47 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Uthai Thani at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Uthai Thani's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Uthai Thani at home: 1.32 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jan 2025, when Uthai Thani won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Uthai Thani's record when hosting Sukhothai FC specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Uthai Thani
3
Draws
0
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Uthai Thani have won 3, Sukhothai FC have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Sukhothai FC 1-1 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Uthai Thani at 64%, Sukhothai FC at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Uthai Thani) and 64% (Sukhothai FC).
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Uthai Thani home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Uthai Thani play Sukhothai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Uthai Thani's games and 68% of Sukhothai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Uthai Thani vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Uthai Thani's recent games and 64% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Uthai Thani and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Uthai Thani have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Uthai Thani run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sukhothai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Uthai Thani beat Sukhothai FC 3-0 at Uthai Thani Province Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Uthai Thani 1.37 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.16 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Uthai Thani beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sukhothai FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Uthai Thani attack 0.81 / defence 1.05 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.97, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Uthai Thani 41% | Draw 29% | Sukhothai FC 31%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Uthai Thani 55%, Sukhothai FC 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Uthai Thani's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Uthai Thani 1.15 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Uthai Thani win broke the near-deadlock. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.