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Port FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Nakhon Ratchasima FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Port FC beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-0 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 2.61 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.68 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.34 / defence 0.77 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.25, drawn from 50/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Port FC 78% | Draw 16% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 7%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 78%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 52%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Port FC's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Port FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights