Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ayutthaya FC at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Ayutthaya FC travel to Rainbow Stadium to take on Pattani. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 March 2027, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pattani stand at 1W 1D 1L from 3 Thai League 1 matches — 1.33 PPG. Last five: D W L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ayutthaya FC — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ayutthaya FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Pattani 1.33 PPG, Ayutthaya FC 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Pattani in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Ayutthaya FC in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pattani 33% versus Ayutthaya FC 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Pattani 67% | Ayutthaya FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattani 0.70 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattani attack 0.599 / defence 1.206 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.925 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.221. Pattani's attack strength of 0.599 is below the league average — the 0.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Pattani games / 33 Ayutthaya FC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Pattani 19% | Draw 28% | Ayutthaya FC 53%. Fair-value odds: Pattani 5.26 | Draw 3.57 | Ayutthaya FC 1.89. Ayutthaya FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ayutthaya FC as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ayutthaya FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pattani 33% | Ayutthaya FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Rainbow Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Mar 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattani 19% | Draw 28% | Ayutthaya FC 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 38% | xG Pattani 0.70 / Ayutthaya FC 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Pattani attack 0.599 / def 1.206 | Ayutthaya FC attack 0.925 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Ayutthaya FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Pattani xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Ayutthaya FC xG
38%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC kick off?
Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Sunday 21 March 2027 at Rainbow Stadium.
Where is Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC being played?
The match is being played at Rainbow Stadium.
What competition is Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC part of?
Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our statistical model gives Pattani a 19% chance of winning, Ayutthaya FC a 53% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ayutthaya FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Pattani and Ayutthaya FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pattani and Ayutthaya FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pattani and Ayutthaya FC in?
Pattani (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-W-L. Ayutthaya FC (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Pattani's attacking strength (0.60x league average) is weighed against Ayutthaya FC's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.70. The same calculation in reverse, Ayutthaya FC's attack versus Pattani's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ayutthaya FC Win
19%
5.17
28%
3.56
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Pattani xG
Total xG
2.07
1.36
Ayutthaya FC xG
5.17
19%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
49%
2.02
Win to Nil
5%
20.20
26%
3.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 17.2 | 11.7 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.2 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Pattani and Ayutthaya FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Pattani and 1.36 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pattani come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 1D 1L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Ayutthaya FC sit at 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Ayutthaya FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ayutthaya FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Pattani — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Pattani are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Ayutthaya FC are on 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ayutthaya FC in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pattani
Early Season
Ayutthaya FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pattani and Ayutthaya FC in coming into this match?
Pattani have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Ayutthaya FC have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Pattani or Ayutthaya FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pattani have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ayutthaya FC in 33%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pattani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Ayutthaya FC see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pattani 33%, Ayutthaya FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Pattani and 67% for Ayutthaya FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pattani keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ayutthaya FC in 33%; Pattani have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pattani home games / Ayutthaya FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pattani play Ayutthaya FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Pattani's recent matches and 67% of Ayutthaya FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Pattani's matches and 67% of Ayutthaya FC's.
Do Pattani and Ayutthaya FC tend to score early?
Pattani have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ayutthaya FC in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.