Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC Prediction & Preview
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Poisson rates Ayutthaya FC at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Ayutthaya FC travel to Rainbow Stadium to take on Pattani in Thai League 1 (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 March 2027 at 11:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 8 matches, Pattani stand at 2W 1D 5L — 0.88 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings (12%). Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Pattani at home: 1W 1D 2L from their last 4 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ayutthaya FC — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Ayutthaya FC have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ayutthaya FC are 0.72 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.88), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Pattani, 1 for Ayutthaya FC and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 7 Nov 2026, ended Pattani 1–2 Ayutthaya FC — a Ayutthaya FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Pattani in-play tendencies (last 8 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Ayutthaya FC in-play tendencies (last 8 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pattani 62% and Ayutthaya FC 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Pattani 75% | Ayutthaya FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattani 0.67 xG and Ayutthaya FC 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattani attack 0.647 / defence 1.045 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.203 / defence 0.738. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.430. Pattani's attack rating of 0.647 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.67. Ayutthaya FC bring a tight defence (rating 0.738, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Pattani's projected output down. Ayutthaya FC have an above-average attack rating of 1.203, which lifts their away xG to 1.80. Data: built from Pattani's last 8 games and Ayutthaya FC's last 38.
Result probabilities: Pattani 12% | Draw 25% | Ayutthaya FC 63%. Fair-value odds: Pattani 8.29 | Draw 4.04 | Ayutthaya FC 1.58. The model has a clear lean to Ayutthaya FC (63%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ayutthaya FC as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Pattani's last 4 home games and Ayutthaya FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pattani 25% (last 4 home games) | Ayutthaya FC 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 22 | Venue: Rainbow Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 March 2027 at 11:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattani 12% | Draw 25% | Ayutthaya FC 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Pattani 0.67 / Ayutthaya FC 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Pattani attack 0.647 / def 1.045 | Ayutthaya FC attack 1.203 / def 0.738 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: Ayutthaya FC (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Pattani xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Ayutthaya FC xG
42%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC FAQs
What time does Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC kick off?
Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 UK time on Sunday 21 March 2027 at Rainbow Stadium.
Where is Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC being played?
The match is being played at Rainbow Stadium.
What competition is Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC part of?
Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 22) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our statistical model gives Pattani a 12% chance of winning, Ayutthaya FC a 63% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ayutthaya FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Pattani and Ayutthaya FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Pattani's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against Ayutthaya FC's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.67. The same calculation in reverse, Ayutthaya FC's attack versus Pattani's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Pattani's last 8 games and Ayutthaya FC's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-2 (13.7%), 1-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ayutthaya FC Win
12%
8.29
25%
4.04
63%
1.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.7%
Away win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Pattani xG
Total xG
2.47
1.80
Ayutthaya FC xG
8.29
12%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
1.58
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
17%
6.03
51%
1.95
Win to Nil
2%
50.01
32%
3.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 15.2 | 13.7 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Pattani and Ayutthaya FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Pattani and 1.80 for Ayutthaya FC, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pattani come into this having played 8 games, going 2W 1D 5L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Ayutthaya FC sit at 2.00 PPG from 8 outings (5W 1D 2L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Ayutthaya FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.12 PPG clear of Pattani — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Pattani's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across their last 4 home games, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Ayutthaya FC have taken 2.50 points per game from their last 4 away games (3W 1D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 2.00 PPG overall record — Ayutthaya FC travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ayutthaya FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pattani are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Ayutthaya FC are on 1.75 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pattani have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Ayutthaya FC in 62%.
Last 8 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pattani
Blended
Ayutthaya FC
Blended
Pattani (Home) vs Ayutthaya FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pattani
Blended
Ayutthaya FC
Blended
❓ Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC Form FAQs
What form are Pattani and Ayutthaya FC in coming into this match?
Pattani have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 games (0.88 PPG), while Ayutthaya FC have gone 5W 1D 2L in their last 8 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pattani at home or Ayutthaya FC away?
Ayutthaya FC's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pattani at home: 1.00 PPG; Ayutthaya FC away: 2.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 1 H2H match in our data, going back to November 2026. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Pattani
0
Draws
1
Ayutthaya FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pattani and Ayutthaya FC?
Across the 1 head-to-head match in our data, Pattani have won 0, Ayutthaya FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pattani and Ayutthaya FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Ayutthaya FC 2-1 Pattani.
Who has won more matches between Pattani and Ayutthaya FC?
Ayutthaya FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 1 head-to-head match in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pattani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Ayutthaya FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pattani 25%, Ayutthaya FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pattani) and 50% (Ayutthaya FC).
On the defensive side: Ayutthaya FC in 50%; Pattani have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pattani home games / Ayutthaya FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pattani vs Ayutthaya FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pattani and Ayutthaya FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Pattani's recent matches and 50% of Ayutthaya FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pattani and Ayutthaya FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pattani's recent games and 50% of Ayutthaya FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pattani and Ayutthaya FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Pattani's recent matches and 50% of Ayutthaya FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.