Nong Bua Pitchaya 0-0 Muangthong United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Muangthong United at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Muangthong United make the trip to Pitchaya Stadium to face Nong Bua Pitchaya in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 August 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nong Bua Pitchaya have collected 1.00 PPG across 4 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 1D 2L. Last five: L L W D. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Nong Bua Pitchaya have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Muangthong United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Muangthong United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Muangthong United's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Muangthong United are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nong Bua Pitchaya lead 0W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2023, ended 1–3 with Muangthong United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Nong Bua Pitchaya goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Muangthong United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nong Bua Pitchaya 50% versus Muangthong United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nong Bua Pitchaya 100% | Muangthong United 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.48 xG and Muangthong United 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.813 / defence 1.243 | Muangthong United attack 0.976 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.766 / away 1.273. Data: 4 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 34 Muangthong United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 35% | Draw 28% | Muangthong United 38%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Muangthong United 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Muangthong United as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Muangthong United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nong Bua Pitchaya 50% | Muangthong United 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 35% | Draw 28% | Muangthong United 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.48 / Muangthong United 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.813 / def 1.243 | Muangthong United attack 0.976 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.766 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Muangthong United xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 0 - 0 Muangthong United.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 35% chance of winning, Muangthong United a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and Muangthong United will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Muangthong United?
Record (4 meetings): Nong Bua Pitchaya 0W | Draws 3 | Muangthong United 1W.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Muangthong United in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-W-D. Muangthong United (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack at 0.81x the league average against Muangthong United's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Muangthong United's attack (0.98x) against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 4/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
35%
2.89
28%
3.60
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
3.02
1.54
Muangthong United xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
7%
13.53
9%
11.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Muangthong United expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 1.54 for Muangthong United, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nong Bua Pitchaya come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 1D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Muangthong United sit at 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L), a run that reads L-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Muangthong United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Muangthong United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Nong Bua Pitchaya — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Muangthong United are on 1.25 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Muangthong United in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Early Season
Muangthong United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Muangthong United in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Muangthong United have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
Have Nong Bua Pitchaya or Muangthong United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Muangthong United in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Muangthong United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Nong Bua Pitchaya
4
Draws
2
Muangthong United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Muangthong United?
From 6 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 0, Muangthong United have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and Muangthong United last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Muangthong United 2-1 Nong Bua Pitchaya.
Who has won more matches between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Muangthong United?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Muangthong United see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nong Bua Pitchaya 50%, Muangthong United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 25% for Muangthong United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Muangthong United in 50%; Nong Bua Pitchaya have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / Muangthong United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play Muangthong United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent matches and 50% of Muangthong United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Muangthong United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's matches and 25% of Muangthong United's.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and Muangthong United tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Muangthong United in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nong Bua Pitchaya's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nong Bua Pitchaya and Muangthong United finished level at 0-0 at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.48 xG and Muangthong United 1.54 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nong Bua Pitchaya fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Muangthong United landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.81 / defence 1.24 against Muangthong United attack 0.98 / defence 1.03, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 35% | Draw 28% | Muangthong United 38%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 100%, Muangthong United 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Muangthong United's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Muangthong United arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nong Bua Pitchaya managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Muangthong United managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.