Muangthong United 2-0 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Muangthong United (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Muangthong United face Ratchaburi.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Thunder Dome Stadium plays host to Muangthong United versus Ratchaburi in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Wednesday 28 August 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Muangthong United have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Muangthong United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Thunder Dome Stadium, Muangthong United have gone 10W 0D 0L this season (10 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Thunder Dome Stadium. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Muangthong United are significantly better at Thunder Dome Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Muangthong United's favour (2.20 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across 6 previous meetings, Muangthong United are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2024, ended 2–1 with Muangthong United winning.
The historical record gives Muangthong United a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Muangthong United half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Ratchaburi half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Muangthong United 70% and Ratchaburi 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Muangthong United 73% | Ratchaburi 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Muangthong United 1.89 xG and Ratchaburi 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Muangthong United attack 1.193 / defence 0.775 | Ratchaburi attack 0.901 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.780 / away 1.299. Muangthong United's defence rating of 0.775 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 33 Muangthong United games / 33 Ratchaburi games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Muangthong United 59% | Draw 25% | Ratchaburi 16%. Fair-value odds: Muangthong United 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Ratchaburi 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Muangthong United (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Muangthong United as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Muangthong United 40% | Ratchaburi 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Thunder Dome Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Aug 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Muangthong United 59% | Draw 25% | Ratchaburi 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG Muangthong United 1.89 / Ratchaburi 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Muangthong United attack 1.193 / def 0.775 | Ratchaburi attack 0.901 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.780 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Muangthong United xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Ratchaburi xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:30 on Wednesday 28 August 2024 at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What was the final score in Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi?
Muangthong United 2 - 0 Ratchaburi.
Where is Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What competition is Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi part of?
Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Muangthong United a 59% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Muangthong United and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Ratchaburi?
Record (6 meetings): Muangthong United 4W | Draws 1 | Ratchaburi 1W.
What form are Muangthong United and Ratchaburi in?
Muangthong United (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Ratchaburi (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Muangthong United's attack rating (1.19) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (0.90x) against Muangthong United's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
59%
1.70
25%
3.94
16%
6.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Muangthong United xG
Total xG
2.80
0.91
Ratchaburi xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
6.33
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
15%
6.64
Win to Nil
24%
4.21
2%
42.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 10.4 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Muangthong United and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Muangthong United and 0.91 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 33 outings, Muangthong United have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 17W 5D 11L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Muangthong United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ratchaburi's form line: 12W 7D 14L from 33 games, 1.30 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Muangthong United against 1.30 for Ratchaburi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Muangthong United have posted 2.33 PPG from 15 outings (11W 2D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — Muangthong United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 3W 5D 7L from 15 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Muangthong United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Muangthong United are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.39 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Muangthong United
Early Season
Ratchaburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Muangthong United and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Muangthong United have gone 17W 5D 11L in their last 33 games (1.70 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 12W 7D 14L in their last 33 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Muangthong United at home or Ratchaburi away?
Muangthong United's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Muangthong United at home: 2.33 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Ratchaburi go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Muangthong United won 4-0 on 12 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Muangthong United have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Muangthong United
1
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, Muangthong United have won 5, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Muangthong United and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Ratchaburi 3-2 Muangthong United.
Who has won more matches between Muangthong United and Ratchaburi?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Muangthong United 60%, Ratchaburi 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Muangthong United) and 33% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Muangthong United keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Ratchaburi in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Muangthong United home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Muangthong United play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Muangthong United's recent matches and 40% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 73% of Muangthong United's recent games and 33% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Muangthong United and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Muangthong United have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Muangthong United cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ratchaburi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Muangthong United beat Ratchaburi 2-0 at Thunder Dome Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.89 xG and Ratchaburi 0.91 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ratchaburi landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 1.19 / defence 0.78 against Ratchaburi attack 0.90 / defence 0.89, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 59% | Draw 25% | Ratchaburi 16%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 73%, Ratchaburi 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Muangthong United's trading profile (33 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (33 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Muangthong United 1.70 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Muangthong United win broke the near-deadlock. Muangthong United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.