Sukhothai FC 2-3 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Uthai Thani travel to Thung Talay Luang Stadium to take on Sukhothai FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 August 2024, 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sukhothai FC — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Sukhothai FC have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thung Talay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Uthai Thani have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Uthai Thani's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Uthai Thani — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sukhothai FC, 1 for Uthai Thani and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 1–3 with Uthai Thani winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sukhothai FC in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Uthai Thani in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 62% versus Uthai Thani 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 68% | Uthai Thani 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.21 xG and Uthai Thani 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.908 / defence 1.081 | Uthai Thani attack 0.764 / defence 0.768. League average goals — home 1.738 / away 1.249. Uthai Thani's defence strength of 0.768 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 34 Sukhothai FC games / 34 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 37% | Draw 34% | Uthai Thani 28%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Uthai Thani 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sukhothai FC as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Uthai Thani (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sukhothai FC 50% | Uthai Thani 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 37% | Draw 34% | Uthai Thani 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.21 / Uthai Thani 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.908 / def 1.081 | Uthai Thani attack 0.764 / def 0.768 | league avg home 1.738 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Uthai Thani xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani?
Sukhothai FC 2 - 3 Uthai Thani.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 37% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani?
Record (2 meetings): Sukhothai FC 0W | Draws 1 | Uthai Thani 1W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Uthai Thani (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sukhothai FC's attack rating (0.91) and Uthai Thani's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Uthai Thani's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
37%
2.67
34%
2.93
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.24
1.03
Uthai Thani xG
2.67
37%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
8%
11.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 11.0 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.03 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sukhothai FC's recent record stands at 10W 6D 18L from 34 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Uthai Thani, meanwhile, have gone 9W 11D 14L across 34 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-L-D-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sukhothai FC on 1.06 PPG, Uthai Thani on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sukhothai FC have managed 8W 2D 7L from 17 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Uthai Thani's away record stands at 5W 4D 8L across 17 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sukhothai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.21 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
Uthai Thani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 10W 6D 18L in their last 34 games (1.06 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 9W 11D 14L in their last 34 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Uthai Thani away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.53 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jan 2025, when Uthai Thani won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Uthai Thani specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Sukhothai FC
3
Draws
3
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani?
From 6 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 0, Uthai Thani have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Sukhothai FC 1-1 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 53%, Uthai Thani 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Sukhothai FC) and 59% (Uthai Thani). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Uthai Thani in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Uthai Thani?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Sukhothai FC's recent matches and 53% of Uthai Thani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Sukhothai FC's matches and 59% of Uthai Thani's.
Do Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Uthai Thani defy the odds to beat Sukhothai FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Uthai Thani beat Sukhothai FC 2-3 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.21 xG and Uthai Thani 1.03 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Uthai Thani outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.08 against Uthai Thani attack 0.76 / defence 0.77, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 37% | Draw 34% | Uthai Thani 28%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Uthai Thani win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 68%, Uthai Thani 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.06 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Uthai Thani win broke the near-deadlock. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.