Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3-2 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Nakhon Ratchasima FC face Uthai Thani.

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Match Analysis

Nakhon Ratchasima FC host Uthai Thani at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 18). Kick-off is Sunday 19 January 2025 at 12:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

At home, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 home games (1.38 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Uthai Thani — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Uthai Thani's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 1.10 PPG versus Uthai Thani's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 0, Uthai Thani 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Aug 2024, ended Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1–1 Uthai Thani — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Nakhon Ratchasima FC trading profile (last 17 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).

Uthai Thani trading profile (last 17 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 59% versus Uthai Thani 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 53% | Uthai Thani 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.15 xG and Uthai Thani 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.732 / defence 1.477 | Uthai Thani attack 0.925 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.699 / away 1.124. Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack rating of 0.732 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence rating of 1.477 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Uthai Thani's projected output up. Data: built from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 17 games and Uthai Thani's last 46.

Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 27% | Draw 28% | Uthai Thani 45%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3.67 | Draw 3.59 | Uthai Thani 2.23. Uthai Thani hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Uthai Thani as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Nakhon Ratchasima FC's last 8 home games and Uthai Thani's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 75% (last 8 home games) | Uthai Thani 40% (last 10 away games).

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