Nong Bua Pitchaya 0-0 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nong Bua Pitchaya at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lamphun Warrior make the trip to Pitchaya Stadium to face Nong Bua Pitchaya in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 January 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record at Pitchaya Stadium: 5W 1D 3L from 9 Thai League 1 appearances (1.78 PPG). They are averaging 2.11 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.78 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Nong Bua Pitchaya are significantly better at Pitchaya Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Lamphun Warrior's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Lamphun Warrior have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Nong Bua Pitchaya against 1.20 for Lamphun Warrior. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nong Bua Pitchaya lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Nong Bua Pitchaya half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Lamphun Warrior half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nong Bua Pitchaya 71% versus Lamphun Warrior 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nong Bua Pitchaya 71% | Lamphun Warrior 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.73 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.087 / defence 1.243 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.025 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.676 / away 1.170. Data: 17 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 47 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 42% | Draw 25% | Lamphun Warrior 32%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Lamphun Warrior 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nong Bua Pitchaya are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nong Bua Pitchaya if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates are neutral: Nong Bua Pitchaya 56% | Lamphun Warrior 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jan 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 42% | Draw 25% | Lamphun Warrior 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.73 / Lamphun Warrior 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.087 / def 1.243 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.025 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.676 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Nong Bua Pitchaya (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Lamphun Warrior xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 18 January 2025 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Lamphun Warrior?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 0 - 0 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 42% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Nong Bua Pitchaya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (3 meetings): Nong Bua Pitchaya 0W | Draws 1 | Lamphun Warrior 2W.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Lamphun Warrior in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack rating (1.09) and Lamphun Warrior's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lamphun Warrior's attack (1.02x) against Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 17/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nong Bua Pitchaya Win
42%
2.36
25%
3.96
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
3.22
1.49
Lamphun Warrior xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
10%
10.47
6%
17.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.3 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 1.49 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent record stands at 5W 4D 8L from 17 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamphun Warrior, meanwhile, have gone 5W 5D 7L across 17 games — 1.18 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Nong Bua Pitchaya against 1.18 for Lamphun Warrior. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Nong Bua Pitchaya have managed 5W 1D 2L from 8 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Nong Bua Pitchaya are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lamphun Warrior's away record stands at 1W 2D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lamphun Warrior's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nong Bua Pitchaya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.35 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nong Bua Pitchaya have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 5W 4D 8L in their last 17 games (1.12 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 5W 5D 7L in their last 17 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home: 2.00 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nong Bua Pitchaya
2
Draws
2
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Lamphun Warrior?
From 4 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 0, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 0-0 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Lamphun Warrior?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nong Bua Pitchaya 62%, Lamphun Warrior 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Nong Bua Pitchaya) and 50% (Lamphun Warrior). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play Lamphun Warrior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's games and 50% of Lamphun Warrior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's matches and 50% of Lamphun Warrior's.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nong Bua Pitchaya's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nong Bua Pitchaya and Lamphun Warrior finished level at 0-0 at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.73 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.49 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nong Bua Pitchaya fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Lamphun Warrior landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 1.09 / defence 1.24 against Lamphun Warrior attack 1.02 / defence 0.95, drawn from 17/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 42% | Draw 25% | Lamphun Warrior 32%, with Nong Bua Pitchaya to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 71%, Lamphun Warrior 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.12 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nong Bua Pitchaya (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.