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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Prachuap defy the odds to beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Prachuap beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-2 at 80th Birthday Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.20 xG and Prachuap 0.88 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Prachuap outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.82 / defence 0.94 against Prachuap attack 0.81 / defence 0.96, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 42% | Draw 33% | Prachuap 25%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Prachuap win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50%, Prachuap 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Prachuap's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Prachuap arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights