Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-3 Port FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Port FC at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Port FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Port FC meet at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 October 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 4D 2L from 9 games (1.44 PPG). Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.11 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 2W 2D 0L this season (4 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.44 — Nakhon Ratchasima FC are significantly better at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Port FC (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D D L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 7D 0L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Port FC are the stronger side — 0.66 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.44). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Nakhon Ratchasima FC register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Port FC in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1W, Port FC 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Nakhon Ratchasima FC half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Port FC half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 78% and Port FC 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 44% | Port FC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.13 xG and Port FC 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.841 / defence 1.049 | Port FC attack 1.208 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.671 / away 1.088. Port FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.208 — the away xG of 1.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 9 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 39 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 28% | Draw 33% | Port FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | Port FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 100% | Port FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 28% | Draw 33% | Port FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 54% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.13 / Port FC 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.841 / def 1.049 | Port FC attack 1.208 / def 0.806 | league avg home 1.671 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Port FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Port FC xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Port FC kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Port FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Port FC?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2 - 3 Port FC.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Port FC part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 28% chance of winning, Port FC a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Port FC?
Record (4 meetings): Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1W | Draws 1 | Port FC 2W.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Port FC in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 3W-4D-2L in 9 | 1.44 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Port FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Port FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack at 0.84x the league average against Port FC's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Port FC's attack (1.21x) against Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 9/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
28%
3.59
33%
3.06
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
2.51
1.38
Port FC xG
3.59
28%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
7%
14.21
13%
7.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 11.2 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 1.38 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 3W 4D 2L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC's form line: 5W 3D 1L from 9 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-W. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Port FC are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have posted 2.00 PPG from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Nakhon Ratchasima FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Port FC have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 2.11 scored and 0.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Ratchasima FC have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Port FC in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Port FC in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 3W 4D 2L in their last 9 games (1.44 PPG), while Port FC have gone 5W 3D 1L in their last 9 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Port FC away?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Port FC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Nakhon Ratchasima FC or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Port FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Port FC have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Port FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
1
Draws
6
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Port FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, Port FC have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Port FC 2-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nakhon Ratchasima FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, 75% for Port FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 75% for Port FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's games and 75% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's matches and 75% of Port FC's.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Port FC tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Port FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Port FC edge out Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2-3 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.13 xG and Port FC 1.38 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Port FC outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.05 against Port FC attack 1.21 / defence 0.81, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 28% | Draw 33% | Port FC 39%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 44%, Port FC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Port FC's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.44. Form held, and they took the win. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.