Chonburi FC 3-1 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Chonburi FC at 51%, yet in-form Sukhothai FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Sukhothai FC travel to Chonburi UTA Stadium to take on Chonburi FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 February 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chonburi FC stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Chonburi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Chonburi UTA Stadium, Chonburi FC have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Chonburi FC are significantly better at Chonburi UTA Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Sukhothai FC's 1.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Chonburi FC's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Chonburi FC, 2 for Sukhothai FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2023, ended 2–3 with Sukhothai FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Chonburi FC in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Sukhothai FC in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chonburi FC 56% versus Sukhothai FC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chonburi FC 52% | Sukhothai FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chonburi FC 1.72 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chonburi FC attack 0.942 / defence 1.024 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.602 / away 1.235. Data: 48 Chonburi FC games / 48 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chonburi FC 51% | Draw 27% | Sukhothai FC 22%. Fair-value odds: Chonburi FC 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Sukhothai FC 4.55. Chonburi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chonburi FC are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sukhothai FC (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chonburi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chonburi FC 50% | Sukhothai FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Chonburi UTA Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Feb 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chonburi FC 51% | Draw 27% | Sukhothai FC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Chonburi FC 1.72 / Sukhothai FC 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Chonburi FC attack 0.942 / def 1.024 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.850 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.602 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Chonburi FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Chonburi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Sukhothai FC xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What was the final score in Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Chonburi FC 3 - 1 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Chonburi UTA Stadium.
What competition is Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Chonburi FC a 51% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chonburi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC?
Record (3 meetings): Chonburi FC 0W | Draws 1 | Sukhothai FC 2W.
What form are Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC in?
Chonburi FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chonburi FC's attack rating (0.94) and Sukhothai FC's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sukhothai FC's attack versus Chonburi FC's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chonburi FC Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.73
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Chonburi FC xG
Total xG
2.79
1.07
Sukhothai FC xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
4%
25.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.3 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Chonburi FC and 1.07 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chonburi FC come into this having played 48 games, going 17W 9D 22L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Chonburi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 1.12 PPG from 48 outings (13W 15D 20L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chonburi FC on 1.25 PPG, Sukhothai FC on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Chonburi FC's home form reads 11W 4D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 0.91 points per game from 23 outings (4W 9D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chonburi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chonburi FC are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chonburi FC
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Chonburi FC have gone 17W 9D 22L in their last 48 games (1.25 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 13W 15D 20L in their last 48 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chonburi FC at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Chonburi FC's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chonburi FC at home: 1.61 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Chonburi FC's record when hosting Sukhothai FC specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Chonburi FC
1
Draws
3
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Chonburi FC have won 2, Sukhothai FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Chonburi FC 2-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC?
Sukhothai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chonburi FC 48%, Sukhothai FC 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Chonburi FC) and 48% (Sukhothai FC).
On the defensive side: Chonburi FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Chonburi FC have failed to score in 26% of games; Sukhothai FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chonburi FC home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chonburi FC play Sukhothai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Chonburi FC's recent matches and 61% of Sukhothai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chonburi FC vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Chonburi FC's recent games and 48% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chonburi FC and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Chonburi FC have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chonburi FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sukhothai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chonburi FC beat Sukhothai FC 3-1 at Chonburi UTA Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chonburi FC 1.72 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.07 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Chonburi FC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chonburi FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.02 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.14, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chonburi FC 51% | Draw 27% | Sukhothai FC 22%, with Chonburi FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chonburi FC 52%, Sukhothai FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chonburi FC's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chonburi FC 1.25 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chonburi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.