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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lamphun Warrior and Kanchanaburi share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lamphun Warrior and Kanchanaburi finished level at 1-1 at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 2.22 xG and Kanchanaburi 0.91 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 1.06 / defence 1.18 against Kanchanaburi attack 0.71 / defence 1.33, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 67% | Draw 19% | Kanchanaburi 14%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 63%, Kanchanaburi 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Kanchanaburi's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 0.95 PPG, Kanchanaburi 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kanchanaburi (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.56 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights